Market Overview for Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS)

Summary
• Price action remained range-bound, with a sharp but short-lived bullish move toward a 235k peak.
• Minimal volume and turnover suggest low conviction and limited participation.
• A bearish reversal at 231.5k hints at renewed downward pressure, with no clear breakout direction.

Opening Narrative

On 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET - 1, Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) opened at 232,412 and reached a high of 235,265 by 03:00 ET on 2025-11-07. The pair closed at 235,265 after a 24-hour range between 229,571 and 235,265. Total trading volume was 19.276 units, and estimated turnover was 4.494M ARS.

Structure and Formations

The price action displayed a classic topping pattern after reaching a key 235,265 resistance level. A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 233,362, but it failed to sustain above the 235k threshold. A bearish reversal at 229,571 suggested exhaustion, with multiple doji-like candles forming in consolidation. Key support levels emerged around 229,571 and 231,562, with resistance at 235,265 and 233,721. The pattern implies a possible continuation lower into the next support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bearish alignment after 21:00 ET, signaling bearish momentum. The daily chart remained neutral, with 50 and 200-period averages closely aligned, suggesting indecision in the medium term. No clear trend dominance was observed in the past 24 hours.

MACD and RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning hours, while the RSI-14 peaked at 68 and declined to a neutral 50, indicating a potential overbought correction. Momentum appears to be weakening, especially in the last 6 hours, with the RSI failing to re-enter overbought territory. This suggests that a bearish continuation into the next support level may be more likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility slightly expanded as price moved toward the upper band near 235,265 before retreating sharply into the lower band at 229,571. This indicates a period of heightened price swings with no clear directional bias. The price has oscillated between the bands for most of the session, suggesting continued range trading.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at 235,265 with 0.646 units traded, but failed to confirm a bullish breakout. Turnover also remained muted, with no significant divergence between price and volume action. The low volume during most of the session suggests limited market participation and may indicate a lack of conviction in both bullish and bearish moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a key 61.8% retrace level was identified around 231,562, which was briefly tested before the price bounced. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels corresponded with 229,571 and 231,562, respectively, and both served as temporary support points. A break below 229,571 could expose the next 227,500 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy was applied using the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) as a proxy for Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS). The strategy was based on a combination of a daily Bullish Engulfing candle and RSI-14 > 70 as entry signals, with an exit at the next day's close. Over the 01 Jan 2022 – 07 Nov 2025 period, the strategy yielded a 7.92% total return with an annualized return of 2.03%. Despite a positive edge, only four trades met the criteria, indicating the set-up is rare. The absence of drawdowns suggests limited risk, but the low sample size implies the results may not be statistically robust. To improve reliability, consider expanding the signal conditions—such as lowering the RSI threshold or adding volume confirmation—before re-running the test.