Market Overview: Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS)

• Price dropped sharply from 364K to 350K, driven by a large bearish gap and volume spikes.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, with price near key Fibonacci support at 343.5K.
• Volatility is elevated, with Bollinger Bands widening and multiple breakouts failed.
• Volume was muted after 12:00 ET, suggesting reduced short-term conviction from traders.
• A bullish reversal attempt appears at 346.5K, but lacks follow-through.

The Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) pair opened on 2025-09-14 at 358,286.0, surged to a high of 364,146.0, then plunged to a 24-hour low of 343,548.0 before closing at 349,749.0. Total volume was 34.44 units, with a notional turnover of approximately USD 11.8M, based on average pricing. Price action displayed multiple bearish breakdowns, a large bearish gap, and failed bullish attempts in the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels were observed around 364,146.0 and 361,286.0, both of which were broken during the session but failed to hold during subsequent rebounds. A large bearish gap formed between 18:45 and 19:00 ET (2025-0914), followed by a sharp decline to 357,385.0. A bullish attempt at 346,594.0 ended in a bearish engulfing pattern at 14:30 ET (2025-0915), indicating short-term bearish bias. A key Fibonacci support level at 343,548.0 (61.8% of the 364K-343K swing) appears to be the immediate critical level for further support.

Moving Averages & MACD

The 15-minute chart shows the price is trading below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming the short-term downtrend. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period line earlier in the session, signaling bearish momentum. The MACD histogram shows a shrinking bearish divergence, suggesting a potential slowdown in the sell-off but not a reversal. RSI stands at 27.2, indicating oversold territory, but a reversal must be confirmed with higher-volume bullish candlesticks to be meaningful.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly due to the large price swings from 364K to 343K, indicating high volatility. Price has spent much of the session near the lower band, especially after the breakdown at 361,286.0. A breakout above the upper band is unlikely without a major reversal pattern and increased volume. The most recent bounce off the lower band at 343,548.0 was weak, with limited follow-through.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline from 364K to 350K, especially around the 19:30 ET (2025-0914) and 07:45 ET (2025-0915) candles. This suggests strong bearish conviction at key levels. However, volume has been subdued since 12:00 ET (2025-0915), with several no-volume candles, indicating reduced participation from traders. Turnover diverged from price action between 20:30 and 21:00 ET (2025-0914), with declining turnover despite a sharp drop, hinting at exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels based on the 364,146.0 to 343,548.0 swing show the 61.8% level at 343,548.0, which is currently being tested. The 38.2% level sits near 355,543.0, where a minor bounce was observed before the price resumed its decline. A failure to hold at 343,548.0 may push the price down to the 23.6% level at 358,010.0 or even test the lower band of the Bollinger Bands.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of bearish engulfing patterns, oversold RSI, and a failed bullish attempt at 346,594.0, a backtest strategy could be constructed that targets a continuation of the downtrend. A short bias might be triggered at 346,594.0 with a stop just above 349,749.0 and a first target at 343,548.0. If confirmed below this level, the next target could be the 23.6% Fibonacci at 358,010.0. This aligns with the bearish divergence in MACD and the weak follow-through in volume. A bullish reversal could be considered if the price breaks above 349,749.0 with strong volume, but such a move would be a high-risk trade in the current environment.