Market Overview for Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) – 24-Hour Analysis

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• Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) traded in a narrow range early, with a sharp breakout forming after 18:30 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern and a 61.8% Fibonacci level supported the 357,000-ARS level, followed by a pullback.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours of 10/3, but momentum stalled near 360,000 ARS, with RSI signaling potential overbought conditions.
• Low volumes persisted until a 2.431 turnover spike at 23:30 ET, which led to a sharp 2.8% drop in the last 15 minutes of the day.
• Bollinger Bands signaled a tightening range in the afternoon, followed by a breakout and re-entry into the band late in the session.

Market Summary

Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) opened at 344,655 ARS on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 360,110 ARS before closing at 352,312 ARS on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. The pair saw a total volume of 29.773 and a notional turnover of 10,509,963 ARS over the 24-hour period, with notable intraday swings and low-volume consolidation periods.

Structure & Formations

SOLARS formed a bullish engulfing pattern around 18:30 ET as price surged from 352,254 to 357,815 ARS. This was followed by a consolidation phase and a pullback, with a key support level forming at 355,546 ARS. A doji appeared at 23:15 ET, signaling indecision after a sharp 3.1% increase in a single 15-minute candle. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 357,000 ARS coincided with a key psychological level and showed buying pressure in the 22:00–23:00 ET timeframe.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bullish alignment for much of the session, with the 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA during the breakout at 18:30 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages were relatively flat, indicating short-term momentum without a clear trend direction in the broader timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish in the 18:30–20:15 ET window, with a positive crossover and a moderate histogram expansion. The RSI reached overbought levels (75–80) around 23:30 ET, suggesting possible short-term resistance and a potential reversal. A bearish divergence emerged late in the session as price made a new high but RSI failed to follow through, raising the likelihood of a near-term correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained compressed in the 18:00–19:30 ET timeframe, with price trading within a tight band. A breakout occurred at 18:30 ET, with price closing near the upper band before retracing into the middle band. Late in the session, the bands widened again as price fluctuated between 352,000 and 359,000 ARS, signaling increased uncertainty and potential for further consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume remained subdued early in the session, with spikes occurring at 18:30 ET (1.737), 22:30 ET (5.682), and 23:30 ET (2.431). These spikes coincided with significant price changes but were followed by rapid retracements, suggesting the presence of aggressive short-term buyers and liquidity exhaustion. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the largest spike at 23:30 ET preceding the final 15-minute pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci level at 357,815 ARS (61.8% retracement from 344,655 to 360,110) held as a support during the consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level around 350,000 ARS formed a potential support zone, which was briefly tested in the last candle of the session but not broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described employs a multi-timeframe approach using 15-minute MACD and 1-hour RSI divergence to identify overbought/oversold conditions. It also uses Fibonacci retracement levels to pinpoint entry zones. Given today’s chart, the 18:30 ET bullish MACD crossover with a 61.8% Fib level alignment would have triggered a long entry, with a stop just below 355,546 ARS. A trailing stop could have been activated after reaching 359,000 ARS. The late RSI divergence and the final 15-minute candle’s bearish reversal suggest an exit or tightening of stops, aligning with the strategy’s risk management rules.