Market Overview: Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) - 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price declined from a high of $237,507 to $229,439 amid bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions with limited near-term upside potential.
• Low volume and turnover suggest weak conviction, raising concerns about liquidity.

The Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) pair opened at $235,979 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $229,439 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of $237,507 and a low of $227,964. Over the 24-hour period, total volume traded was 31.951 SOL, with a notional turnover of approximately 7.44 million ARS. The pair has shown bearish momentum and appears to be testing key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price action has formed multiple bearish signals over the past 24 hours, including a large bearish engulfing pattern from $236,615 to $235,319, followed by a continuation of selling pressure toward $229,439. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier bullish swing is currently at $231,000, which may offer some resistance ahead.

Support / Resistance

Key support levels to watch in the near term include $229,439 (most recent close), $228,037 (previous support), and $227,964 (daily low). Resistance levels are at $231,000 (Fib 61.8%), $233,404 (bearish pivot), and $235,319 (recent consolidation).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both dipped below the price, reinforcing the bearish trend. Longer-term, the 50-period daily moving average remains above the current price, suggesting a shift in trend but not a reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has crossed below the signal line, and the RSI has entered oversold territory around 30, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, with weak volume and no clear reversal signals, a sustained recovery is unlikely without additional buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, which has expanded over the past 24 hours, indicating increased volatility. The 20-period Bollinger Band width is at 1.2%, suggesting that the market remains in a volatile phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and notional turnover have been relatively low throughout the session, with a notable spike at $233,000 and another at $228,037. These areas may signal minor accumulation or distribution zones. The lack of volume confirmation behind the recent lows raises concerns about liquidity and the strength of buyers entering the market.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $237,507 to $227,964, key levels include 38.2% at $233,404 and 61.8% at $231,000. These levels may act as short-term resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of a larger swing is at $235,000, which could be a key psychological barrier for buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying the described backtest strategy—buying on the close following a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern and exiting the next day—would require identifying such patterns in the 15-minute OHLCV data. A bearish engulfing pattern was identified at $236,615 and $235,319, forming at 2025-11-11 17:30 ET. The next day’s close was $235,269, representing a small gain of approximately 0.02%. This outcome suggests that the strategy may yield limited profits in low-volatility environments, and further testing over multiple cycles would be required for robust assessment.