Market Overview: Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) on 2025-10-03

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• Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) traded in a 24-hour range of 344,655 to 360,110 ARS, closing near the 24-hour low of 350,874.
• Price formed bearish momentum through lower highs and lower closes in the latter half of the session.
• Total volume was 67.76 SOL and turnover hit 23,857,641 ARS, showing moderate but uneven participation.
• A potential bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 353,151 ARS, with a retest of prior support.
• MACD turned negative and RSI signaled oversold conditions, suggesting a potential pause in the downtrend.

24-Hour Summary and Opening

Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) opened at 344,655 ARS on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET and hit a high of 360,110 ARS before closing at 350,874 ARS on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded during the 24-hour window was 67.76 SOL, with notional turnover reaching 23,857,641 ARS. Price action was characterized by choppy intraday swings and a bearish bias in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels developed around 357,675 ARS and 359,609 ARS, where the pair struggled to maintain momentum. A bearish engulfing candle emerged at 353,151 ARS, suggesting short-term capitulation. Price found temporary support at 350,330 ARS and 352,953 ARS before a final decline to close near the 24-hour low. A doji near 353,151 ARS and 352,953 ARS hinted at indecision.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both showed bearish crossovers late in the session. The 20 SMA (352,800 ARS) crossed below the 50 SMA (353,400 ARS), forming a death cross. The MACD line crossed into negative territory and remained below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

The RSI closed near 33, indicating oversold conditions, though not extreme enough to trigger a strong reversal. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, with price staying near the lower band most of the session. A contraction occurred near 353,151 ARS, followed by a breakout lower. Price tested the lower band at 350,330 ARS and found support there temporarily.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at key turning points, including the 18:30 ET and 03:15 ET candles, with a large 3.781 SOL volume bar driving the move to 359,609 ARS. However, the lack of sustained volume during the downward move to the 24-hour low suggests weak follow-through from bears. Notional turnover peaked at 834,178 ARS during the 18:30 ET candle, contrasting with the quieter closing hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels were active during the final leg of the decline. The 61.8% level of the 344,655–360,110 ARS move sat near 350,800 ARS, aligning closely with the final close of 350,874 ARS. The 38.2% level at 353,400 ARS acted as a minor resistance. These levels suggest that a deeper pullback may be limited unless the 344,655 ARS level is tested again.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the confirmation of a death cross on the 15-minute moving averages, a potential short bias could be tested using a time-based exit strategy. A backtest could apply a short signal at the close of the 353,151 ARS candle, with a stop-loss at 357,675 ARS (previous resistance) and a take-profit at 344,655 ARS. This setup would target a 10,219 ARS move with a 7,021 ARS risk, yielding a 1.46:1 risk-reward ratio. A 15-minute RSI-based filter could be added to avoid entries during overbought conditions.