Market Overview for Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS): 2025-09-25

• SOLARS declined 6.5% over 24 hours amid low volume and lack of follow-through buying.
• Price broke below key support at 296,411 and tested 285,750 with no immediate reversal.
• RSI entered oversold territory, but divergence between price and momentum remains weak.
• Volatility increased as price moved 8.8k from highs to lows, but turnover stayed muted.
• Fibonacci levels at 289,142 and 285,750 may see near-term retests for support.

The Solana/Argentine Peso pair (SOLARS) opened at 301,198 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 301,198, and closed at 282,987 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, marking a 6.38% drop. Total volume for the period was approximately 40.67, with turnover remaining subdued despite the sharp move downward. The price action suggests bearish continuation, with no strong signs of reversal in the 24-hour candlestick pattern.

Structure and price behavior reveal a key support zone at 296,411, where the pair consolidated for several hours before breaking decisively lower. A long bearish candle formed during the session, followed by a sequence of lower lows and shrinking bodies, suggesting fading bullish momentum. The 285,750 level has acted as a tentative floor, though without a strong reversal pattern like a hammer or bullish engulfing candle. A bearish flag pattern is evident from 301,198 to 296,411, suggesting continuation below 285,750 is likely.

Volume remained thin through much of the session, with a few spikes at key levels like 299,574 and 289,142, indicating some selling pressure but not enough to justify large price moves. The 15-minute chart shows a consistent trend of lower highs and lower closes, with the pair remaining under its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. On the daily scale, the 50/100/200 EMAs appear to be aligning lower, which may reinforce the bearish bias in the coming days.

The RSI on the 15-minute chart dipped into oversold territory around 285,750, but no strong bounce followed, suggesting weak conviction from buyers. MACD remained bearish, with the histogram staying below the signal line throughout most of the session. Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with the price staying near the lower band. Fibonacci retracement levels of the key 301,198–296,411 move (38.2% at 299,343 and 61.8% at 297,540) have been tested multiple times, but none have held effectively.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages in conjunction with RSI divergences to identify short-term entry points. Given the recent break below 296,411 and the lack of volume-driven bounce, a mean-reversion approach may be less effective. Instead, a trend-following strategy—selling on retests of Fibonacci levels like 289,142 or 285,750—could be tested using 15-minute OHLC data. The strategy could be refined by incorporating volume-weighted price action to filter out false breakouts and improve signal accuracy.