Market Overview: Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) on 2025-09-24

• SOLARS traded in a volatile 24-hour range of 288,688 to 306,990, closing near the session low.
• Momentum indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum and potential bearish continuation.
• Price spent much of the period within Bollinger Bands, with volatility surging mid-session.
• Volume was unevenly distributed, with significant spikes during sharp downward moves.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 294,150 and 281,465 may test support in the near term.

The Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) pair opened at 303,552 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 300,050 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range reached a high of 306,990 and a low of 288,688. Total trading volume over the period was 91.87, with a notional turnover of approximately 25,880,000,000 (assuming 1 SOLARS = 1 unit). The session was marked by intermittent bearish breakouts, particularly in the early morning hours, and consolidation in the latter half of the day.

Price action revealed a complex bearish bias, especially during the 03:30–05:00 ET window, where the pair dropped over 6,000 points in rapid fashion. The 15-minute chart showed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow at the session close, indicating a possible rejection of higher levels. Key support levels appeared to form around 296,787, 293,700, and 289,000, while resistance levels at 302,917 and 305,173 showed some initial rejection.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a bearish crossover, with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, forming a death cross. This suggests a continuation of bearish momentum. The 15-minute RSI dipped into oversold territory multiple times, most notably around 04:30–05:00 ET, yet price failed to recover, indicating potential exhaustion of the bearish move. MACD remained bearish with negative divergence on multiple legs of the decline, suggesting a continuation of downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion in the mid-evening hours, aligning with the sharp drop in price. Price action spent a large portion of the session near the lower band, indicating a volatile bearish phase. A minor contraction occurred in the late morning, hinting at a potential short-term reversal. However, the failure of the price to rebound above the 20-period MA suggests limited near-term upside potential.

Volume was unevenly distributed, with a noticeable increase during bearish breakouts and a sharp decline during consolidation phases. Notional turnover spiked during the 03:30–05:00 ET window, coinciding with the most significant price drop. However, the price failed to confirm the strength of the move by holding above key Fibonacci retracement levels. This divergence could be a cautionary signal for further bearish continuation.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the major 24-hour swing (from 306,990 to 288,688) identified key levels at 302,917 (23.6%), 300,050 (38.2%), and 293,700 (61.8%). The 38.2% level was briefly tested before the close, showing possible near-term support. On the 15-minute chart, key retracement levels at 304,500 and 303,552 also saw price rejection, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position upon the formation of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the engulfing candle and a target set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish swing. Given the multiple bearish engulfing patterns observed on the 15-minute chart and the current positioning near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, this setup aligns with the hypothesis. If executed, the strategy would likely have triggered multiple short entries during the 03:30–05:00 ET window, with favorable risk-reward ratios due to the depth of the price drop. However, given the recent divergence in the RSI and MACD, and the lack of strong follow-through in price after multiple attempts to break higher, this approach may prove more robust in the next 24-hour period if bearish momentum continues.