Market Overview: Solana/Argentine Peso (SOLARS) on 2025-09-13

• SOLARS opened at 348,911, surged to 359,000, and closed at 358,332 with strong afternoon momentum.
• Notable bullish engulfing patterns appeared between 19:30 and 20:00 ET, followed by consolidation.
• Volatility remained high with a 1.1% range on Bollinger Bands and overbought RSI near 70.
• Volume spiked at 04:00 ET with a 1.4M ARS notional move and diverged with price after 15:00 ET.
• Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 61.8% aligned with key resistance near 357,000 and 354,000.

Price Action and Structure

The 24-hour period for SOLARS began at 348,911 and closed at 358,332, with a high of 359,000 and a low of 351,692. The price action displayed a clear bullish bias after 18:00 ET, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET and a sharp rally to 359,000. However, a bearish divergence in volume and price emerged after 15:00 ET, hinting at potential exhaustion in the rally. Key resistance levels appear at 359,000 and 357,500, with strong support at 354,000 and 351,692.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the late afternoon, signaling renewed bullish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at 356,400, and the 20-period MA is at 357,200, both supporting the recent rally. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 355,000, and the 200-period MA at 352,000, suggesting the price remains above both major indicators, reinforcing a bullish bias.

MACD showed a positive crossover with a rising histogram after 18:00 ET, while RSI reached 70, indicating overbought conditions. A pullback may be likely in the near term.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 18:00 and 21:00 ET, with price peaking near the +1.1% band. The contraction in the last few hours suggests fading volatility and a potential consolidation phase.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key move between 348,911 and 359,000 identified 357,000 (38.2%) and 354,000 (61.8%) as significant psychological levels. The price appears to have stalled near 358,332, just above the 61.8% level, indicating potential resistance ahead.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Total volume for the 24-hour window amounted to 64.54 units traded, with a total notional turnover of 23.09M ARS. The most active candle occurred at 04:00 ET, where volume spiked to 1.401 units, driving the price up from 356,601 to 357,513. However, volume has since declined significantly, with multiple 15-minute candles showing zero volume. Price-volume divergence after 15:00 ET suggests waning buying interest and potential for a near-term correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could involve entering long positions on the 15-minute chart when price breaks above the 20-period MA, with a stop loss at the 50-period MA and a target near the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Conversely, short positions could be triggered when price closes below the 50-period MA after an overbought RSI reading (>70), with a stop at the 20-period MA and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach leverages both trend-following and mean-reversion signals, and would be best tested during hours with significant volume and price action, such as between 18:00 and 21:00 ET.