Market Overview for Sleepless AI/Bitcoin (AIBTC) – October 4, 2025

• Sleepless AI/Bitcoin (AIBTC) saw a 24-hour range between 1.02e-06 and 1.04e-06, closing near the lower end of the range.
• RSI and MACD signals suggest weakening momentum, with RSI hovering near 30, indicating potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility remained subdued, with price activity tightly clustered around 1.02e-06–1.03e-06.
• High volume clusters were limited to a few hourly windows, with no sustained price reaction.
• Fibonacci levels suggest 1.01e-06 as a key near-term support, with 1.04e-06 as a possible resistance.

Price and Volume Summary

AIBTC opened at 1.03e-06 on October 3, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and closed at 1.02e-06 on October 4, 2025. The 24-hour range was between 1.01e-06 (low) and 1.04e-06 (high), with total volume traded of 380,758.4 and total turnover at 0.384 BTC equivalent. The asset exhibited a slight bearish drift with muted volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period remained constrained within a narrow trading range, with most candles showing tight formation and minimal shadowing. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 03:00 ET, where the close dropped from 1.03e-06 to 1.02e-06 after a higher open. Later, a small doji at 08:45 ET signaled indecision, and a bearish trend continued into the afternoon with a new low at 9.8e-06. Key support levels appear to be forming around 1.01e-06 and 1.02e-06, with resistance clustering near 1.04e-06.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained aligned, indicating no clear short-term trend. The price hovered just below the 20-period MA for most of the day. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA intersected with the 100-period MA, suggesting a potential trend reversal. RSI dropped into the 30–35 range in the late morning, indicating oversold conditions, while MACD remained flat, with the histogram shrinking, indicating decreasing momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands were compressed for the majority of the day, with the price trading near the midline for most of the session. A modest contraction occurred between 1:00 AM and 9:00 AM ET, suggesting low volatility. A brief expansion occurred in the late afternoon, with price dipping below the lower band at 15:30 ET, indicating a possible bearish continuation or short-term bounce. However, the price quickly retracted, suggesting the move was not sustainable.

Volume and Turnover

Volume and turnover were generally low, with the largest volume spike occurring at 03:00 ET (12,433.2) when the price broke below 1.03e-06. Another notable volume increase occurred at 08:45 ET (19,527.1), aligning with a bearish breakdown. However, no significant price reaction followed the volume spikes, indicating weak confirmation. A divergence between volume and price is visible in the morning, where volume spiked but price failed to break lower.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute move from 1.04e-06 to 1.01e-06, the 38.2% level is at ~1.03e-06 and the 61.8% level is at ~1.02e-06. The price has tested and retested the 61.8% level on several occasions without breaking through, suggesting it may act as a short-term floor. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level for the recent decline from 1.04e-06 is near 1.02e-06, aligning with current support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using the 50-period moving average as a signal line, with trades initiated when price closes below it (short entry) and exits when it closes above it (cover short). Given the recent alignment of the 50-period MA with key Fibonacci levels, and the bearish momentum signals, this strategy may have had success over the past 24 hours. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance at 1.04e-06, while take-profit levels could be set near 1.01e-06 and 9.8e-06. However, with low volume and indecisive candle formations, the strategy may benefit from incorporating a volatility filter to avoid whipsaws.