Market Overview for Sleepless AI/Bitcoin (AIBTC) — October 11, 2025 (24-Hour)

• • •

• AIBTC traded in a narrow range around 1e-06, with early bearish breakouts and a late recovery to 7.5e-07.
• Volatility expanded briefly during a sharp 21:15 ET sell-off from 9.9e-07 to 8e-07, suggesting increased market uncertainty.
• A bullish reversal pattern emerged around 07:30 ET as price rebounded from 7.1e-07 to 7.2e-07.
• RSI and MACD showed weak momentum, indicating potential for consolidation.
• Volume surged during the 21:15 ET low, indicating increased selling pressure.

Market Summary

Sleepless AI/Bitcoin (AIBTC) opened at 1e-06 on October 10, 2025 at 12:00 ET and traded as low as 8e-07 during the session before closing at 7.4e-07 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached an intraday high of 1.02e-06. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 10,680,000 units, with a notional turnover of $7,695,610 (assuming $100 BTC reference price), highlighting increased engagement toward the end of the day.

The price action over the last 24 hours was characterized by a series of narrow-range consolidations, punctuated by a sharp bearish move in the early evening hours. This downward spike suggests heightened short-term bearish sentiment, but the asset later found support around 7.1e-07 and attempted a recovery into the morning hours.

Structure and Key Levels

AIBTC formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 21:15 ET, following a sharp drop from 9.9e-07 to 8e-07. A key support zone emerged in the 7.1e-07–7.2e-07 range during the overnight and early morning hours, which appears to have successfully capped further declines. Resistance is currently forming near 7.5e-07, where price stalled for most of the session.

Notable candlestick formations include a bullish reversal pattern around 07:30 ET, as well as a doji at 01:45 ET, which may signal indecision among traders at the 7e-07 level.

Moving Averages and Trend

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained closely aligned throughout the day, indicating a weakly trending or consolidating market. On the daily chart, AIBTC is trading below all three major moving averages (50, 100, and 200), reinforcing a bearish bias. The 50-day SMA has been acting as a key overhead barrier, which has not yet been decisively tested.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI indicator oscillated between 30 and 50 for much of the day, reflecting low to moderate momentum with no strong overbought or oversold signals. However, MACD showed a bearish crossover during the 21:15 ET sell-off, indicating increased short-term bearish pressure. Volatility was notably elevated during the late-night and early morning hours, as reflected in the wide Bollinger Bands. Price spent most of the day within the bands, but the contraction in the afternoon hours hinted at a potential breakout or reversal.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume surged significantly during the bearish move from 21:15 to 21:30 ET, confirming the depth of the sell-off. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with the price action. In contrast, volume was relatively muted during the subsequent recovery, suggesting the buying pressure was less aggressive. Divergences between volume and price were minimal, but the lack of follow-through buying following the 7.2e-07 high raises caution about the sustainability of the rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 21:15 ET low (8e-07) to the subsequent high (7.2e-07) reveals that the 7.3e-07 level aligns closely with the 61.8% retracement. A break above this level may attract further buyers. On the broader daily chart, the 7.4e-07 level coincides with the 61.8% retracement of a recent bearish leg, which could act as a potential pivot point for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on identifying early morning bullish reversal patterns and divergence between RSI and price action after a key support is tested. Specifically, the strategy assumes a long position is triggered if the following conditions are met: (1) A bullish reversal candle forms after price tests a 7.1e-07 support, (2) RSI shows a bullish divergence (higher lows in RSI while price makes lower lows), and (3) volume increases by at least 50% compared to the previous hour. Given the RSI divergence observed around 07:15 ET and the reversal pattern at 07:30 ET, this backtest would have entered a long position near 7.2e-07. The target for profit would be the 7.5e-07 resistance, with a stop-loss near 7.0e-07.