Market Overview for SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

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• Price declined from 0.02967 to 0.02894 in 24 hours, with key support at 0.0289–0.0291.
• Volatility expanded in early morning ET, with high-volume bearish swings from 0.0295 to 0.0291.
• MACD and RSI indicated bearish momentum; price closed near the lower Bollinger Band.
• Volume surged over 3 million in 15-minute candles, but notional turnover did not confirm strength.
• Fibonacci retracement levels highlight 0.0292 (38.2%), 0.0290 (61.8%) as critical near-term levels.

Opening Summary

SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) opened at 0.0294 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.02894 at 12:00 ET today. The pair traded between 0.02967 and 0.02878, with a total 15-minute volume of ~21.4 million SKL and a notional turnover of ~$617,000. The price action reflects bearish momentum and a consolidation near key support.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a descending triangle forming between 0.02967 and 0.02894, with a critical breakdown below 0.0292. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible at 0.02963–0.02955, signaling increased selling pressure. A doji appears at 0.02906, suggesting indecision at the lower end. The key support levels are now at 0.0289–0.0291, and the 0.0292–0.0294 range acts as resistance.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart are both bearish, with the price currently below both. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA is at ~0.0292, acting as a short-term resistance. The 100- and 200-day SMAs are below the current price, suggesting the downward trend remains intact for now. A retest above the 50 SMA could reverse the bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish, crossing below zero during the night with negative divergence. RSI dropped to ~35, indicating oversold conditions but not strong enough to confirm a reversal. Momentum remains weak, with price failing to break above prior 15-minute highs despite volume surges.

Bollinger Bands

Price is now near the lower Bollinger Band (~0.0289), with bands widening from ~0.0296 to ~0.0289. This suggests increased volatility and a possible consolidation phase. A break below 0.0288 could extend the range, while a rebound to the upper band (~0.0293) may trigger a short-term rally.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked over 3 million SKL during the 4:30 AM–5:30 AM ET window, with price failing to close higher. This suggests a bear trap or a failed short-covering rally. Turnover did not increase proportionally with volume, indicating weak conviction in the move. A follow-through bearish move may require renewed volume support.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.02967–0.02894 swing include 0.0293 (38.2%) and 0.0290 (61.8%). The 0.0290 level is currently being tested, with a possible bounce or breakdown expected. A breakdown below 0.0290 could target the 0.02878 support from earlier in the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when RSI < 40 and MACD is bearish, with a stop-loss above the recent 15-minute high. A target is placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0290) with a trailing stop at the 38.2% level (0.0293). This setup aligns with the current bearish bias and could offer a favorable risk-reward profile if the 0.0290 level breaks convincingly. Given the recent volume patterns, confirmation of a breakdown with strong volume would increase the strategy’s reliability.