Market Overview: SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) - 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-18

• Price action surged to 0.0281 before retracting to 0.0275, forming a bullish flag pattern.
• RSI reached overbought territory near 75, suggesting potential pullback.
• Volume spiked during the 0.0280–0.0281 breakout, confirming bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, indicating heightened market interest.
• Divergence seen between price and turnover in the late morning, hinting at mixed sentiment.

The 24-hour candle for SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) opened at 0.02684 (12:00 ET - 1), surged to a high of 0.02811, retraced to a low of 0.02674, and closed at 0.02784 (12:00 ET). Total trading volume amounted to 96,031,670.0 SKL with a notional turnover of $2,634,569.14. This session reflects a bullish breakout followed by consolidation and a retest of key levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action from 0.0273–0.0281 formed a bullish flag pattern within a descending triangle. The breakout above 0.0280 was confirmed by strong volume and momentum. A key support level appears at 0.0275–0.0276, where price retested twice in the morning and evening. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 0.02774–0.02778 in the late morning, followed by a doji at 0.02796, indicating indecision after a strong rally.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20-period EMA and 50-period EMA crossed above 0.02775 during the morning session, supporting the bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits around 0.0273, and the 200-period SMA is at 0.0269, indicating that SKLUSDT is above its key long-term averages, which may support further upside in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned positive at 0.0278 and remained in bullish territory for much of the session, aligning with price strength. RSI reached 75 during the morning high, signaling overbought conditions, while a pullback brought it back to neutral levels (~50–55), suggesting a temporary consolidation phase. No clear divergence was observed between RSI and price during the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning surge as price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band at ~0.0280. This expansion followed a period of consolidation in the lower half of the bands. Price closed just inside the upper band at 0.02784, indicating that the bullish momentum remains intact but may face near-term profit-taking pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout phase (0.0280–0.0281) with ~5.4 million SKL traded in the 09:00–10:00 ET window. Notional turnover mirrored the volume trend, peaking at ~$165,000 during the same period. However, late-morning and mid-afternoon trading showed a divergence between price and turnover, with price continuing higher while turnover flattened, hinting at potential exhaustion in the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 0.0273 to 0.0281, price retested the 38.2% level (0.02775) and the 61.8% level (0.02791) in the afternoon. These retests coincided with key candlestick patterns, suggesting these levels are meaningful for near-term support and resistance. On the daily chart, 0.0275 (38.2% retracement of the previous bearish swing) may offer short-term support ahead of 0.0269 (61.8%).

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy aims to identify potential trend continuation setups by combining RSI overbought conditions with volume confirmation and key Fibonacci retracements. Given today’s price behavior, this strategy could have entered long positions near 0.02775–0.02778 during the morning retest, using the 38.2% Fibonacci level as a trigger. The breakout above 0.0280 and subsequent RSI divergence align with the strategy’s criteria, suggesting the setup was valid. However, the doji and diverging turnover in the late morning could have acted as a stop-loss signal if the strategy included a trailing exit rule.