Market Overview for SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) – 2025-11-06

• Price declined from 0.01614 to 0.01533, forming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening bullish momentum and potential bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the 24-hour period with sharp price swings and high turnover.
• Bollinger Bands showed price trading closer to the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions.
• A key support level was formed near 0.0155–0.0157 during the 15-minute charting period.

SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) opened at 0.01602 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01533 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of 0.01614 and a low of 0.01518 over the 24-hour window. Total trading volume was 14,020,100 tokens, with notional turnover amounting to USD $218.79.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern indicates a bearish bias, supported by declining momentum in the RSI and negative MACD divergence. The price tested key support levels multiple times, most notably between 0.0155 and 0.0157, with mixed rejections and breakouts. On the 15-minute chart, a notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 2025-11-06 at 16:00 ET, signaling a potential continuation of downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of volatility expansion, with price trading closer to the lower band, suggesting possible oversold conditions. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended lower, reinforcing the bearish bias. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high (0.01614) to the low (0.01518) placed 61.8% at 0.01549, near which price found some consolidation. The 50-period SMA served as a critical dynamic support/resistance, with price breaking below it late in the session.

Volume increased during key bearish moves, especially after 2025-11-06 at 16:00 ET, confirming the strength of the sell-off. Notional turnover also spiked during bearish swings, suggesting increased conviction from larger traders. Divergence between price and momentum indicators suggests exhaustion in the rally but not yet in the bearish move.

The RSI, currently at 28, is in oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD remains negative with bearish divergence, pointing to a continuation of the downward trend. The Bollinger Bands show a wider range, indicating increased volatility and the potential for further price swings. If the price continues to fall below 0.0154, a deeper correction toward 0.01518 may be likely. Traders should closely monitor the 0.0155–0.0157 support range and the 50-period SMA for potential rejections or breakdowns.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long positions on a confirmed Bullish Engulfing pattern and exiting when the price closes below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA-50). This approach capitalizes on reversal signals while managing risk using a dynamic exit level.

Applying this rule to the 15-minute chart data would require identifying Bullish Engulfing patterns and evaluating whether the subsequent price action confirms the reversal. A confirmed pattern is followed by an exit if the price closes below the SMA-50. This strategy would be best tested on a daily or 4-hour chart due to the frequent noise in the 15-minute data, especially given the volatile behavior observed on 2025-11-06.

To proceed with the backtest, we need clarification on the exact exchange and symbol format (e.g., BINANCE:SKLUSDT) and the preferred time interval (daily or 4-hour). Once confirmed, the data will be retrieved, and the strategy will be backtested, including generating interactive charts for visual validation.