Market Overview: SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) – 2025-11-05

Summary
• SKLUSDT opened at $0.01579 and closed at $0.01576, with a 24-hour high of $0.01587 and low of $0.01435.
• Volume increased notably in the early session, with a 24-hour total of ~32.9 million tokens traded.
• A potential bullish reversal pattern emerged late in the session, but bearish momentum has reasserted.

The SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) pair opened at $0.01579 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at $0.01576 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.01587 and a low of $0.01435 within the 24-hour window. The total volume traded was approximately 32.9 million tokens, with a notional turnover of $5.3 million. The pair experienced a sharp decline into the early evening hours, followed by a modest rebound in the late session, suggesting mixed sentiment among traders.

Structure & Formations

Price initially tested a key resistance level near $0.0158 before retreating, failing to consolidate above it. A notable bearish reversal pattern emerged around 203000 ET, with price falling below the prior session’s low and forming a long lower wick. Later in the session, a potential bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 221500–223000 ET, suggesting short-term buying pressure. However, the move failed to hold, indicating that bearish forces remain dominant for now. Support appears to be consolidating around $0.0156–0.0157.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average dipped below the 50-period line, signaling a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA remains above the 100-period on the daily chart, though the 200-period line is pressing as a potential medium-term resistance. Price has been oscillating around the 50-period MA with increasing volatility, suggesting indecision among traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the early session and remained below the signal line, pointing to bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory around $0.0147 before recovering, indicating a temporary buying interest but not a strong reversal. The divergence between RSI and price in the late session suggests a potential exhaustion of bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early part of the session, with price reaching the lower band at $0.01435. By the late session, the bands had slightly contracted, and price returned to the center. This suggests a temporary relief in volatility and a possible consolidation phase, though the lower band remains a critical support level to watch.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early bearish phase, particularly around 203000 ET, with over 6.5 million tokens traded on that candle. Turnover spiked correspondingly, reflecting the large price move. However, volume waned during the late rebound, indicating limited conviction among buyers. A divergence between volume and price action during the rebound suggests that the short-term bounce may be fragile.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.01435 to $0.01587, the 61.8% retracement level is around $0.0153. Price has rebounded from this area twice in the session, suggesting it is a key support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at $0.0155 appears to be providing some near-term support. A break below the 61.8% level would signal further bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on identifying Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns on SKLUSDT would benefit from the recent price action context. A potential setup occurred at 221500–223000 ET, with a strong close above the prior candle’s body. However, this signal would have failed to hold, suggesting the need for additional filters (e.g., volume confirmation or RSI divergence). For a robust backtest, the strategy should hold entries for one day and include a stop-loss at the 38.2% Fibonacci level to manage risk. Using 2022–2025 data, we could evaluate the hit ratio, average gain, and drawdown to refine the approach.