Market Overview for SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• SKLUSDT opened at $0.02467 and closed at $0.02327, forming a bearish trend with a 24-hour low of $0.02292.
• Momentum decelerated as RSI hit oversold territory, while volume surged during the downward leg.
• A strong breakdown below key support levels was confirmed, with price consolidating near the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility spiked, with price closing near the lower band, signaling exhaustion.
• Divergence between volume and price during the recovery attempts suggests bearish continuation pressure.

The SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) pair opened at $0.02467 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02327 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Price reached a 24-hour high of $0.02469 and a low of $0.02292. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 14,173,970.0 SKL, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $337,650. The market exhibited a strong bearish bias, with price consolidating below key psychological and Fibonacci levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near the $0.02456 level before breaking below critical support at $0.02423. The 15-minute chart displayed a series of bearish hammers and a long lower wick near $0.0234, suggesting rejection at these levels. Notable resistance levels include $0.02450 and $0.02469, while key support levels are now at $0.02340 and $0.02292. A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.02327 was confirmed as the final close level, signaling a likely near-term bottoming process.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with price currently below both. Daily moving averages show a longer-term bearish bias, as the 50-period MA is below both the 100-period and 200-period MAs. This reinforces the bearish narrative and suggests continuation of the downward trend in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum, with the histogram showing negative divergence. RSI has entered the 30-oversold zone, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, but this is unlikely to reverse the overall bearish trend. Negative divergence in both MACD and RSI suggests the bearish momentum is still intact and could persist.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, reflecting increased volatility during the breakdown phase. Price closed near the lower band, which often acts as a support in a bullish recovery. However, repeated rejections at this level suggest a breakdown scenario is more likely. Traders should watch for a breakdown below the $0.02292 level, which could extend the downside further.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown phase, particularly around the 03:00–05:00 ET timeframe, coinciding with the move to the 24-hour low. However, volume declined during the attempted rallies, indicating a lack of buying interest. Turnover and volume appear to be aligned in the bearish direction, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key 15-minute swing from $0.02469 to $0.02335, the 61.8% level at $0.02327 has been confirmed as a key support. Daily retracements from the recent high to the recent low also align with this level, reinforcing its significance. A breakdown below this level could target the 78.6% retracement at $0.02260 or the 100% extension at $0.02218.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question involves entering a short position when the 50-period and 20-period moving averages both cross below the price, and RSI is below 30 on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance level, while a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bearish swing. Given today’s price action, this strategy was activated around 04:00 ET as both MAs crossed below price and RSI dipped into oversold territory. The target level at $0.02327 was confirmed by the close, suggesting the strategy could be effective under similar conditions in the future.