Market Overview for SKALE/Tether (SKLUSDT) on 2025-09-21

• SKLUSDT declined 5.7% in 24 hours, with price dropping to $0.02726 after an early rebound attempt failed.
• RSI (14) entered oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential near-term reversal, though volume divergence weakens bullish signals.
• Volatility expanded in the first half of the day, with a 15-minute high of $0.02942 before a sharp reversal to $0.02726.
• Price tested the 0.0283–0.0285 support level three times, failing to hold above, indicating bearish exhaustion at current levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened early, reflecting heightened uncertainty, while the 20-period EMA dipped below the 50-period EMA, signaling short-term bearish bias.

SKLUSDT opened at $0.02856 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded as high as $0.02942 during the session, before retreating to a 24-hour low of $0.02726. At 12:00 ET, the price closed at $0.02726, marking a 5.7% decline over the last 24 hours. The total volume traded was approximately 68.7 million SKL, with a notional turnover of $1.93 million, reflecting significant activity during key reversal phases.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed a bearish exhaustion pattern, with multiple attempts to retest the 0.0283–0.0285 support range failing. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 17:15 ET, followed by a deep doji at 21:30 ET, signaling a potential near-term reversal. The price also formed a small bearish triangle pattern before breaking decisively below key support levels in the early hours of the session.

Moving Averages

The 20-period EMA (15-min chart) dipped below the 50-period EMA, forming a bearish crossover, while both indicators remained in a descending trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA moved below the 100-period and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish momentum observed in the shorter timeframe. The price closed below all three daily SMAs, indicating a continuation of the downtrend unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the latter half of the session, with the histogram shrinking in the early morning hours, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. However, the RSI (14) reached oversold territory near 30, indicating potential for a rebound, though the divergence between rising price and declining RSI in the late afternoon cast doubt on the strength of any near-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply in the first few hours of the session, indicating heightened volatility. Price action remained near the lower band for much of the day, with a brief retest of the upper band occurring just before the sharp sell-off. The narrow band at the start of the session suggested a consolidation phase that ended abruptly with a large down candle.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early evening hours, particularly between 19:30 ET and 21:30 ET, coinciding with the breakdown of key support levels. However, notional turnover declined in the final hours, despite the continued price decline, indicating potential exhaustion among sellers. A volume spike around the bearish engulfing pattern at 17:15 ET supported the bearish signal, though the divergence later in the session weakened its strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the 15-minute chart at around $0.0286 appeared to act as a key resistance during the early rebound phase. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level at $0.0289 was briefly tested but rejected, suggesting further downside. Price appears to be targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the daily chart at $0.0273–0.0274 as the next potential support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on SKLUSDT after a bearish engulfing pattern forms on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below the 20-period EMA. A stop-loss is placed above the high of the engulfing candle, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This strategy aligns with the observed price action and technical indicators, particularly the bearish engulfing pattern and the breakdown of key support levels. The RSI entering oversold territory suggests the strategy should incorporate a cautious approach to avoid false signals during overextended moves.