Market Overview for Sign/Tether (SIGNUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined from a morning high of 0.04193 to 0.0394 by market close amid bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the early session, with high-volume sell-offs in the 0.0411–0.0419 range.
• RSI reached overbought levels early in the day, followed by a sharp pullback into oversold territory.

Sign/Tether (SIGNUSDT) opened at 0.04012 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 0.04193 before closing at 0.0394 at 12:00 ET. The price traded in a wide range of 0.03725 to 0.04193. Total 24-hour volume was 38.2 million, with a notional turnover of 1.54 billion, indicating strong participation.

On the 15-minute chart, price formed a bearish engulfing pattern in the early session, followed by a long lower shadow at the 0.0394 level. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, signaling bearish bias. On the daily scale, price remains above the 200-period MA, though pressure is evident from the 50/100-period lines.

MACD turned negative in the morning with a bearish crossover, confirming the trend reversal. RSI bottomed in the 30–35 range, suggesting possible support at this level. Bollinger Bands widened in the first half of the session, with price now resting near the lower band, indicating elevated volatility and potential for a bounce or further consolidation.

Volume distribution showed a significant sell-off in the 0.0411–0.0419 range, with volume spiking to over 3.2 million in one hour. Turnover diverged from price during the late session, with weaker volumes accompanying the decline, signaling possible exhaustion. Fibonacci retracements from the morning high (0.04193) to the low (0.03725) indicate 38.2% at 0.04002 and 61.8% at 0.03912 as key levels to watch for near-term direction.

The price may test the 0.0390–0.0391 level for support in the next 24 hours. While momentum indicators suggest a potential bounce, the lack of volume confirmation could result in further consolidation or a breakdown. Investors should monitor the 0.0400–0.0405 range as a critical pivot point for near-term direction.

The MACD and RSI indicators played a central role in confirming the bearish reversal after the morning high. MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover, while RSI bottomed in the 30–35 range, indicating oversold conditions. These signals align with the backtest hypothesis, which explored event-driven strategies using similar momentum and trend indicators. The current move may mirror historical golden-cross patterns, although the average outcome has not shown significant outperformance in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest focused on event-driven momentum strategies using the MACD, a standard indicator in both the daily and 15-minute analysis. Golden-cross events, where the MACD line crosses above its signal line, were flagged to assess their predictive value in crypto trading. The results showed a mixed performance: while 56 golden-cross events were identified since 2022, the median 10-day excess return was slightly negative, and the 30-day return was marginally positive with a near-even win rate. This suggests that while golden crosses may occasionally indicate turning points, they do not reliably outperform a buy-and-hold strategy in the short term. Investors using similar event-driven strategies should combine MACD signals with other confirmation tools—such as volume and Fibonacci levels—as seen in the recent move of SIGNUSDT.