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• Sign tested key resistance near 0.0739, failing to break through after a sharp 15-minute rally.
• Daily RSI and 15-minute RSI both show overbought conditions, suggesting a possible near-term pullback.
• Volatility expanded in early morning ET as price swung ~5.1% in a 45-minute window.
• Volume surged during the 15-minute rally but then declined sharply, indicating weakening momentum.
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Sign opened at 0.0729 at 12:00 ET − 1 and peaked at 0.07397 during the early morning ET session, before retreating to 0.07072 by the 24-hour close at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 4.2 million units, and turnover stood at ~$299,000, showing moderate to high liquidity during key swings.
A strong bullish candle formed at 00:00 ET with a high of 0.07397, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern as prices dropped sharply to 0.0729 by 00:15 ET. This bearish reversal was confirmed by a continuation of lower closes and declining volume. Key support levels formed at 0.0728 and 0.0725, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming near 0.0732. The price has been consolidating between 0.0725 and 0.0730 for most of the session, with 0.0725 acting as a firm short-term support.
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both crossed above key resistance levels before the sharp sell-off. The 20-period SMA is currently at 0.0729, while the 50-period sits at 0.07285. Both have shifted downward, aligning with the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at ~0.0727, the 100-period at ~0.0725, and the 200-period near 0.0724, suggesting that further declines could find support at the 200-day level.
The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish divergence during the morning rally, but it turned bearish quickly as volume waned. The RSI hit ~75 during the rally, indicating overbought conditions. Daily RSI remains in neutral territory (~50) as the 24-hour close is near the 50-period SMA. However, the 15-minute RSI has been in overbought territory for much of the morning, suggesting a possible short-term pullback. MACD on the daily chart remains positive but has flattened, hinting at waning bullish momentum.
The 15-minute Bollinger Bands were in a tight contraction between 0.0727 and 0.0730 before the rally, then expanded sharply during the 0.07397 high. Price closed the 24-hour period near the lower band, suggesting a possible return to consolidation. The mid-band currently sits at 0.0728, with the upper and lower bands at ~0.0730 and ~0.0726, respectively.
Volume spiked during the rally at 00:00 ET (1.3 million units traded) but quickly tapered off, suggesting lack of follow-through. Turnover was also strong during the rally but declined sharply in the following hours. A volume-based divergence was observed between the rally and subsequent bearish move, suggesting weakening conviction. The total 24-hour volume of 4.2 million units is above average for this pair, reinforcing the significance of the recent price swing.
Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.07248 to 0.07397, the 61.8% level is at 0.0732, which coincided with a key bearish reversal. The 38.2% level sits at 0.0735, which the price briefly held before dropping. On the daily chart, the recent swing from 0.07072 to 0.07397 places the 61.8% retracement at 0.0725, which the price may test as a potential support level.
While the current trend appears to favor further consolidation near 0.0725–0.0728, a breakout above 0.0730 could reinvigorate bullish sentiment. Investors should monitor volume during any upward thrusts for signs of conviction. Risk remains tilted to the downside in the near term, especially with overbought RSI and bearish candlestick formations in play.
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