Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY): Volatility and Momentum Rise on 2025-09-05

• SHIBJPY surged 0.8% in 24 hours, closing at 0.001828 after a bullish breakout above prior highs.
• Key resistance at 0.001832 was tested and retested, with momentum favoring a potential follow-through.
• Volatility expanded sharply during Asian hours, with a 0.000045 Yen range during the session peak.
• RSI showed overbought conditions late morning, indicating potential short-term profit-taking ahead.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001796 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and surged to a 24-hour high of 0.001835 by 14:45 ET, before consolidating near 0.001828 at the 12:00 ET close. Total trading volume over the 24-hour window reached 5,247,626,714 SHIB, with a notional turnover of ~928.4 Yen.

Structure & Formations

SHIBJPY displayed a strong bullish bias from the overnight Asian session, forming a rising wedge pattern between 0.001796 and 0.001835. Key support levels emerged at 0.001805 and 0.001796, both of which held during pullbacks. A bullish engulfing pattern was evident at 0.001803–0.001807, confirming a shift in momentum to the upside. A doji formed at 0.001801 mid-morning, suggesting short-term indecision, but buyers retook control shortly after.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price during the 07:45–08:00 ET timeframe, signaling a bullish crossover. The daily 50-period MA sits at 0.001813, with the 200-period at 0.001801, suggesting a long-term trend shift.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bullish in the early morning, with a positive crossover and increasing histogram size, indicating strengthening momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (72) around 10:15–10:45 ET, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase. However, price remained above 0.001820, maintaining its bullish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained outside the upper Bollinger Band for much of the day, with volatility expanding during the 07:00–10:00 ET period. A contraction in volatility occurred around 03:00–04:00 ET, followed by a breakout to the upper band. This suggests a possible continuation of the bullish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged dramatically during Asian hours, with the 07:45–08:00 ET session seeing 134,833,583 SHIB traded. Notional turnover rose in tandem, with a peak of ~259 Yen at 14:00 ET. The alignment between volume and price suggests strong conviction in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.001796–0.001835 swing, 0.001826 marks the 61.8% retracement level, where price stalled briefly before resuming higher. The 78.6% level is at 0.001843, potentially signaling a near-term ceiling if bulls continue to press higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could target short-term bullish momentum using a 15-minute timeframe with the following rules:
1. Enter long on a close above the 50-period moving average when RSI rises above 55 and MACD line is positive.
2. Exit with a trailing stop at 2% below the 20-period moving average or a 3.5% profit target.
3. Volume should confirm the signal, with at least a 30% increase in the current session compared to the previous 4 hours.

This setup would align with the observed bullish engulfing pattern and strong volume during key breakout periods. Given the current setup, this strategy may offer a high-probability trade entry if SHIBJPY remains above 0.001820.