Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) – October 23, 2025

• SHIBJPY declined during the session, with a 24-hour range of 0.001463–0.001542 and a close below the opening price.
• A notable bearish reversal pattern emerged after a sharp price drop in the first half of the day.
• Volume surged during the initial leg down and again in the late session, suggesting heightened market activity.
• Momentum indicators show a mixed picture, with RSI signaling oversold conditions while MACD remains negative.
• Volatility expanded in the 24-hour window, with Bollinger Bands widening as the price swung across the outer bands.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.00151 and closed at 0.001542 following a volatile 24-hour session. The pair reached an intraday high of 0.001542 and a low of 0.001463. Total volume for the period was approximately 4,724,263,696, while notional turnover reflected the low-value of SHIB, indicating significant trade activity without large dollar exposure. Price moved within a key bearish structure, with a sharp drop from 0.00151 to 0.001478 followed by a modest rebound into the session close.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a descending channel with a clear bearish bias, punctuated by a large bearish candle and a smaller bullish candle in the final hours. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the high of the session, followed by a bearish flag pattern in the afternoon, suggesting exhaustion in the bullish attempt. A doji formed around 0.001501–0.001501 in the early morning, hinting at a possible pause in the downward momentum. Support appears to have been tested near 0.001463–0.001478, while resistance remains at 0.00151–0.001534.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are trending downward, with the price often trading below both. This suggests bearish momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are not provided here, but the 15-minute averages alone indicate that bearish control is likely to persist unless a strong bullish reversal emerges.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained negative throughout most of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring after the price dropped below the 0.001478 level. RSI reached oversold levels (below 30) near the session low but failed to generate a strong reversal signal. This divergence suggests that while buyers may be stepping in, they are not strong enough to reverse the broader bearish trend. A bullish MACD crossover in the final hour provided a modest counter-trend signal, but it lacks confirmation from higher volume or price action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply in the first half of the session, with Bollinger Bands expanding to accommodate the large price swing. The price closed near the upper band in the final hours, suggesting a temporary rebound. However, the lack of a strong follow-through after the upper band touch may indicate that the rebound is more of a pullback than a reversal. A contraction in the bands is not evident, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial leg down, particularly between 16:45 and 18:45 ET, and again in the final 30 minutes of the session. These spikes correlate with significant price moves, confirming the bearish breakdown and the final rebound. Notional turnover was high during these periods, reinforcing the conviction of the moves. The volume profile suggests strong selling pressure during the drop and cautious buying in the final hours, though the latter lacks follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.001463 to 0.001542 shows that the price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level. A potential reversal could occur near the 50% or 38.2% retracement levels in the coming hours, depending on whether buyers step in to defend the 0.00151–0.001534 range. The 61.8% level appears to be a key resistance zone that, if broken, could signal a continuation of the bullish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical signals observed—especially the bearish engulfing pattern, the oversold RSI, and the volume confirmation of key price movements—a backtesting strategy could focus on short-term bearish trades with tight stop-losses placed above key resistance levels. A potential hypothesis for backtesting would be to enter short positions on confirmation of a bearish crossover in the MACD or on a rejection of key resistance levels on the 15-minute chart. A long entry could be triggered by a bullish MACD crossover near the 38.2% Fibonacci level. However, due to the unavailability of SHIBJPY data from the source, adjustments may be necessary. If the pair is unavailable, switching to SHIBUSDT (which has broader data coverage) would allow for a more robust backtest while maintaining the same analytical parameters.