Market Overview: Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY)

• Price declined by 0.21% over 24 hours, closing near session low.
• Key support appears to have held at 0.001912, with minor bullish reversal attempts.
• Volume spiked in early morning trading, aligning with price lows.
• Overbought conditions were absent, but RSI approached oversold territory.
• Bollinger Band contraction and low volatility suggest potential for a breakout.

The 24-hour session for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001929 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.001908 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of 0.001932 and a low of 0.001903. Total volume traded was 18.26 billion units, with a notional turnover of ¥35.39 million.

Key support appears to have formed near 0.001912, where the price found multiple bids and reversal patterns emerged. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 0.001912–0.001915, followed by a doji near the session low. Resistance levels at 0.001922 and 0.001926 saw consistent rejection and bearish momentum.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with the 50-period line below the 20-period, suggesting continued downward pressure. MACD turned bearish, with the line crossing below the signal line, while RSI dipped into oversold territory (~30), signaling potential for a bounce. However, the Bollinger Bands were contracted, indicating low volatility and a possible breakout in either direction.

Volume and turnover data showed a strong divergence in the morning session, with heavy volume at the lows but little follow-through in the afternoon. This may suggest a consolidation phase after a bearish breakdown. A bearish divergence in price and volume at the 0.001922 level was notable. Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% (0.001923) and 61.8% (0.001918) were used as key intraday pivots, with price testing and bouncing from both.

The MACD and RSI indicators suggest that while short-term momentum is bearish, the RSI nearing oversold levels offers a potential support zone. A reversal could be in play if bullish volume increases in the next 24 hours. Investors should watch for a test of 0.001912 and 0.001915 for signs of a rebound. A break below 0.001908 could trigger a deeper correction, but this appears less likely at present.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed strategy involves a short-biased entry when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a take-profit at the 61.8% level or the nearest key resistance. Given the current structure, a long bias could also be considered if RSI confirms an oversold bounce with increasing volume. The strategy’s efficacy in the last 24 hours was mixed, with the short bias confirming during the morning hours but lacking follow-through. A refined version could incorporate RSI as a confirmation filter to reduce false signals.