Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY): 24-Hour Performance and Technical Outlook

• SHIBJPY declined by -0.69% over 24 hours, closing at 0.001929 from 0.001934 open.
• Volatility expanded midday with a 0.000015 range, but failed to hold above 0.00196.
• Volume surged during the 12:00–15:00 ET session, peaking at 0.00192–0.00193 level.
• RSI reached oversold levels (30) by 15:00 ET, suggesting potential for a bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened midday, indicating rising short-term uncertainty.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001934 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and closed at 0.001929 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of 0.00201 and a low of 0.001901. The 24-hour volume totaled 26,665,028,874 SHIB, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥52,430,123 (calculated using the average price).

The 15-minute candlestick pattern revealed a bearish trend throughout the session, with a key resistance forming at 0.00196 and a strong support at 0.001925. Notable bearish patterns included a dark cloud cover at 18:00 ET and a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:15 ET, reinforcing the downward bias. A doji appeared at 19:30 ET, signaling indecision near the 0.001992 level, but the subsequent candles confirmed bearish continuation. The price action appeared to lack conviction above 0.00196, failing to break out and testing support levels multiple times. This suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum in the near term.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both remained above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line, forming a bearish crossover that suggests further downward movement could follow. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages all showed a flat to slightly bearish alignment, with the price currently below all three. This confluence of MA levels could signal a potential continuation of the downtrend over the next 24 hours.

MACD showed a bearish crossover with the histogram turning negative after 20:00 ET, confirming the weakening of bullish momentum. RSI hit 30, indicating the pair is in oversold territory, which could support a short-term bounce. However, the divergence between RSI and price action was not strong enough to signal a reversal. Bollinger Bands widened during the session, reflecting increased volatility, with the price spending much of the day in the lower half of the band, a common feature in bearish phases. These technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, with potential for a consolidation or short-term rebound before a further move lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential trading strategy could involve entering a short position upon a bearish crossover of the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above a recent swing high, such as 0.00196. A take-profit target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the most recent bearish swing, around 0.001925. This approach would aim to capitalize on the bearish momentum confirmed by the MACD and the failure to break above key resistance levels. Given the RSI reaching oversold territory, a short-term reversal could offer a risk-managed short entry or a potential long for a bounce within the larger downtrend. This backtest could be optimized using additional filters, such as confirming the bearish candlestick patterns or divergence in the RSI before entering a trade.