Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• SHIBJPY opened at ¥0.001511 and closed at ¥0.001501, with a high of ¥0.001518 and low of ¥0.001483.
• Price action showed a bearish drift with key support tested near ¥0.001490.
• High volume during the Asian session confirmed downward momentum and distribution pressure.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at ¥0.001511 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET and closed at ¥0.001501 the following day at the same time. The 24-hour range reached ¥0.001518 and dropped to ¥0.001483. Total volume was 4,404,979,464 SHIB with a notional turnover of approximately ¥6,673,000. Price action shows a bearish trend with bearish engulfing patterns and a potential breakdown below ¥0.001500.

On the 15-minute chart, SHIBJPY tested key support levels around ¥0.001490 and ¥0.001485 repeatedly, suggesting possible accumulation for a short-term bounce. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period MA in the late Asian session, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA now resides at ¥0.001505, with the 100-period MA at ¥0.001512, indicating a longer-term bearish structure. Price remains below its 200-period MA, which is currently at ¥0.001516, suggesting ongoing pressure.

The RSI(14) dropped to the mid-30s, signaling oversold conditions but not a strong enough signal for reversal. MACD remains in negative territory, with the line below the signal line and diverging from price, indicating continued bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands show recent volatility contraction, with price hovering near the lower band, which could precede a break or consolidation. The recent selloff appears to be in a lower-probability bounce pattern, with Fibonacci retracements suggesting 38.2% at ¥0.001495 as a possible short-term level of interest.

Looking ahead, the market appears poised to test ¥0.001485–¥0.001480, with a risk of further downside if the key ¥0.001480 level fails. Investors should closely watch volume for signs of accumulation or distribution, as divergence between volume and price could signal a shift in trend.

The backtest hypothesis involves evaluating a momentum-based strategy using the 14-period RSI as a signal. Given the challenges in retrieving SHIBJPY data, the backtest will require using an alternative price series or combining SHIB-USD with USDJPY FX rates for a proxy. Confirming the correct price series will allow for a valid backtest, with signals based on RSI(14) > 70 (overbought) and exit after a 3-day holding period. This approach aims to capture short-term overbought conditions and assess the effectiveness of the strategy over historical data.