Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) - 2025-11-11

Summary
• SHIBJPY opened at 0.001535, hit a high of 0.001586, and closed at 0.001530 over 24 hours.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged around 2025-11-11 04:15 ET, with a sharp 5.5% pullback.
• Volume surged during the breakout attempt but waned on the pullback, suggesting weakening bullish conviction.
• RSI entered overbought territory before the reversal, confirming a momentum slowdown.
• Volatility expanded during the high-volume rally but compressed during the decline, indicating a consolidation phase.

The SHIBJPY pair opened at 0.001535 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.001586 before closing at 0.001530 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. The 24-hour notional volume was 11.1 billion Yen, with a total turnover of approximately 6,918,538 SHIB. Price action shows a strong bullish move into early morning followed by a significant bearish reversal, raising questions about near-term direction.

Structure & Formations

Price formed an engulfing bearish candle on 02:30 ET as the pair turned lower from 0.001568 to 0.001566. A key resistance level emerged around 0.001576-0.001586, with a corresponding support level forming at 0.001545-0.001550. A doji appeared at 03:45 ET, signaling indecision after the sharp upward move. The bearish reversal pattern at the top of the rally appears strong and may indicate a short-term top is in place.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have diverged, with the 50 MA crossing above the 20 MA early in the morning, suggesting a bullish bias. However, the crossover reversed in the afternoon, indicating a bearish shift. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200 MA lines show a mixed signal—price is above all three but diverging from the trend, hinting at a potential pullback.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after reaching a high of 0.000019 at 04:15 ET and crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish shift. RSI peaked at 73, entering overbought territory, before falling below 50 by 07:15 ET. Momentum appears to be weakening fast, with the RSI now at 46, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning rally and compressed significantly during the afternoon pullback, signaling reduced volatility. Price touched the upper band before the reversal and subsequently settled near the middle band. This suggests the pair is now trading within a narrower range and may require a catalyst to break out again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply during the morning rally, peaking at 340 million Yen at 04:15 ET. However, volume dropped significantly during the bearish reversal, indicating weaker follow-through buying. Turnover also declined, confirming a lack of conviction among traders. The divergence between price and volume suggests the bullish move may have run out of steam.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent 15-minute swing (0.001530 to 0.001586) include 38.2% at 0.001558 and 61.8% at 0.001565, both of which were tested. Price found resistance at 61.8%, confirming the Fibonacci retracement pattern and suggesting a potential short-term bottom could form near 0.001545-0.001550.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the morning rally and bearish reversal pattern could have entered short at 0.001576 with a 20% stop-loss at 0.001546 and a 500% take-profit target of 0.001476. The trade would have closed with a 6.4% gain by 07:15 ET. This strategy relies on clear trend confirmation and risk management to avoid overexposure. Conservative traders may consider similar setups moving forward but should wait for additional confirmation signals before entering new positions.