Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) – 2025-11-08

Summary
• SHIBJPY closed at 0.001547, up from 0.001485, with a 24-hour high of 0.001589 and a low of 0.001482.
• Strong bullish momentum seen from 21:15 ET to 21:30 ET, with a 0.001569 high.
• Price tested prior resistance near 0.00156–0.00157 multiple times but failed to hold.
• Volume spiked during key breakouts and pullbacks, aligning with price action.
• Volatility expanded after 18:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and price oscillating within the bands.

Opening Narrative

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001485 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.001547 (12:00 ET), reaching a high of 0.001589 and a low of 0.001482 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 10.39 billion SHIB, with a notional turnover of ¥15.98 million. The price action shows a strong attempt to reclaim higher ground after multiple failed resistance tests.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bullish engulfing pattern around 21:15 ET, where SHIBJPY opened at 0.001569 and closed near the high. Later, a bearish reversal emerged around 02:45 ET, with a long upper shadow as price declined from 0.00157 to 0.00156. A doji appeared near 05:45 ET, indicating indecision as the price struggled to break above 0.00155. These patterns suggest the market is in a state of consolidation ahead of a potential breakout.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price crossing above the 20-period moving average during the early hours of the morning, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period line remained below the current price, suggesting the uptrend is not yet fully entrenched. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are not directly observable from 15-minute data, but the trend appears to be forming above the 200-day MA.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a positive crossover at 21:15 ET, reinforcing the bullish engulfing pattern. RSI oscillated between overbought (>65) and oversold (<35) multiple times, indicating high volatility and mixed momentum. A notable overbought reading appeared around 21:30 ET, followed by a sell-off. This suggests traders may have exited long positions after the price hit 0.001589, resulting in a bearish reversal later in the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 18:00 ET and 22:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the sharp price swings. Price traded between the upper and lower bands during this period, indicating high uncertainty. After 22:00 ET, volatility began to contract again as the price consolidated. The current close at 0.001547 appears to be sitting near the middle band, suggesting a neutral to bullish bias in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during key breakout moments, especially at 21:15 ET and 02:45 ET, aligning with price surges and retracements. Notional turnover spiked in line with volume, confirming the price action. However, a divergence emerged at 05:45 ET when volume declined despite continued price consolidation, indicating a potential loss of momentum. This could signal a possible bearish reversal if not supported by a sharp increase in volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.001482 (low) to 0.001589 (high) shows the current price at approximately the 61.8% retracement level. This suggests SHIBJPY may find resistance near 0.00156–0.00157 or continue lower to test the 50% level at 0.001535. If the price breaks below the 50% level, further support could appear at 0.001516 (38.2%).

Backtest Hypothesis

While SHIBJPY exhibits strong technical signals (e.g., engulfing patterns, divergences, and RSI overbought/oversold conditions), a comprehensive backtest would require access to daily RSI(14) data. Currently, the requested data for SHIBJPY could not be retrieved, likely due to the symbol format or data source limitations. To proceed, consider one of the following:

1. Symbol format correction – Confirm if SHIBJPY is available under a different symbol (e.g., SHIB/JPY, SHIB-USD, or SHIB/JPY on specific exchanges).
2. Alternative currency pair – If JPY pricing isn’t essential, consider SHIB in USD (SHIB/USD or SHIB/USDT) for easier data access.
3. Alternative exchange – Specify an exchange that offers SHIBJPY daily data, such as Binance or Kraken, to ensure accurate RSI(14) inputs.

Once a valid symbol or data source is confirmed, we can calculate daily RSI(14) and generate buy/sell signals based on overbought (≥70) and oversold (≤30) levels. A backtest from 2022 to today will then yield total return, max drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and trade statistics, along with a visual PnL chart for review.