Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) on 2025-10-05

• SHIBJPY opened at 0.001809 and closed at 0.001870 after a volatile 24-hour session marked by a sharp rally and pullback.
• Price surged to a high of 0.001911 but faced selling pressure, resulting in a bearish reversal in the final hours.
• Volume spiked sharply during the rally but diverged from price during the pullback, signaling potential indecision.
• Momentum indicators show overbought conditions early, followed by weakening bullish momentum in the last 6 hours.
• Key resistance appears near 0.001900, while support is forming around 0.001870–0.001860.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001809 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET and closed at 0.001870 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET after a significant 24-hour swing. The pair reached a high of 0.001911 and a low of 0.001809, showing a wide range of 0.000102. Total volume traded was 3,679,445,192 SHIB, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥6,054,784 (based on mid-range close price). The price action reflected strong intraday volatility and diverging momentum late in the session.

Structure & Formations

Price surged through a key 0.001860–0.001900 range during early morning hours on 2025-10-05, forming a bullish breakout with confirmation in the form of a strong hammer pattern at 0.001904. However, a bearish spinning top formed near the high at 0.001911, signaling short-term indecision. The last hour saw a significant pullback, forming a potential bearish engulfing pattern as the 0.001870–0.001880 range failed to hold. This suggests a possible near-term reversal or consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs remained in bullish alignment for much of the day, but the 50 SMA crossed below the 20 SMA in the final 90 minutes, suggesting a weakening trend. The daily 50/100/200 SMA crossover remained bullish but with flattening slopes, indicating waning upward momentum. The price remains above all three, suggesting a continuation of the longer-term bull trend remains in place for now.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish during the final 6 hours, with a bearish crossover of the signal line and a narrowing histogram. RSI peaked at 78 early in the morning and has since fallen to 54 by the close, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Overbought conditions were evident during the high, but a move below the 60 level now suggests the rally may be correcting. The combination of declining RSI and bearish MACD hints at a potential short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning rally, pushing the price to the upper Bollinger Band. However, the subsequent pullback saw a contraction in band width, indicating a potential low-volatility phase ahead. The current close is near the middle band, suggesting that the market may be entering a period of consolidation. A move back toward the upper band could rekindle bullish momentum, while a breakdown to the lower band would signal bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning rally, peaking at 3,679,445,192 SHIB, but sharply declined in the afternoon as the price retreated. This divergence suggests that the buying pressure may be waning and could lead to further consolidation. The late-day pullback occurred with relatively low volume, indicating lack of conviction among buyers. The total notional turnover remained elevated due to the price high, but the volume-turnover profile suggests traders are cautiously watching the key 0.001870–0.001880 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.001870–0.001900 swing on the 15-minute chart shows SHIBJPY finding support at the 61.8% retracement level during the final pullback. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.001880 remains a key watchpoint, as the price appears to be testing that level for a potential breakout or reversal. Traders may look to the 38.2% and 61.8% levels on the intraday chart to gauge whether the price could consolidate or continue its decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a breakout-based strategy using 15-minute candlestick highs and Fibonacci retracements could provide a viable approach for trading SHIBJPY. A potential buy signal could be triggered when the price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band, with a stop loss placed below the 20-period SMA. Conversely, a short trade may be initiated on a breakdown of the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the 15-minute chart, especially if volume diverges. The recent bearish engulfing pattern and divergence in RSI/MACD support a short-term bearish bias, suggesting a pullback to 0.001850–0.001860 may be in play.