Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) on 2025-09-24

• SHIBJPY traded in a narrow range early, then broke out with a 0.000018+ rally after 19:30 ET.
• Volume spiked over 700M at 04:15 ET, indicating a potential short-term reversal attempt.
• 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 04:15–06:15 rebound was tested but rejected near 0.001815.
• RSI remains neutral, but negative divergence appears in the last 3 hours of 2025-09-24.
• Price appears to consolidate near 0.001820–0.001825, with 0.001810 as immediate support.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24, SHIBJPY opened at 0.001806, reached a high of 0.001841, and settled at 0.001829 by 12:00 ET. The total volume over the 24-hour window was 3.265B SHIB, while the notional turnover was approximately ¥5.45M based on average price action. This suggests moderate participation with price trending higher in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours reveals a key consolidation pattern between 0.001789 and 0.001841. A bullish breakout occurred after 19:30 ET as price advanced above 0.001805 and tested 0.001816. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed at 05:30–05:45 ET, signaling a short-term reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. However, this rally has since shown signs of weakening. A bearish harami at 08:45–09:00 ET and a doji at 04:15 ET suggest indecision and potential reversals. The psychological level of 0.001820 appears to be a significant area of resistance.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have crossed over multiple times in the last 6 hours, indicating a volatile, range-bound environment. The 50-period MA is currently at 0.001813, slightly above the 20-period MA at 0.001811, suggesting a mild bullish bias in the near term. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 0.001807, the 100-period at 0.001803, and the 200-period at 0.001798, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown a positive crossover in the last 3 hours, with a mild histogram expansion, confirming recent bullish momentum. However, the histogram is beginning to contract, suggesting weakening buying pressure. The RSI currently reads around 52, remaining in the neutral zone but showing negative divergence in the last 3 hours—closing lower despite a higher price. This hints at potential exhaustion in the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has widened significantly in the last 4 hours, with the upper band reaching 0.001837 and the lower band tightening to 0.001815. Price is currently trading near the upper band, indicating overbought conditions and a possible reversal. A contraction between 03:45–04:15 ET suggested a quiet period before the breakout, which is typical before a larger move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 700M at 04:15 ET and again at 06:30 ET, with the latter coinciding with a strong move to 0.001817. The 06:30–06:45 ET volume of 542M SHIB was followed by a consolidation phase, suggesting buying interest but not yet strong enough to break out of the defined range. The most recent 3-hour period (09:15–12:00 ET) saw a decline in volume, raising questions about the sustainability of the current rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 0.001789 to 0.001841 shows the 61.8% retracement at 0.001818, which was tested but failed to hold. The 38.2% retracement level at 0.001826 is currently the key resistance ahead of the 0.001830 psychological level. A break below the 0.001810 support would suggest a retest of the 0.001800 level before potentially extending to 0.001795.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent structure, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on short-term range trading between the 0.001800 and 0.001825 levels. A possible entry would be to go long near 0.001805 with a stop below 0.001798 and a target at 0.001820–0.001825. A short position may be considered on a break above 0.001825 with a stop at 0.001830 and a target of 0.001810–0.001805. This strategy aligns with the observed Fibonacci levels and RSI divergence, which may help in identifying overbought and oversold entry points in a range-bound market.