Market Overview: Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) – 2025-09-18

• Price surged 9.1% in 24 hours, closing at 0.001970 after a strong bullish breakout above 0.00196.
• Volatility expanded sharply with a 20-period Bollinger Band breach, confirming rising momentum.
• RSI hit overbought territory near 75, while volume spiked 2.5x the average, supporting price strength.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.00196, signaling possible short-term continuation.
• Divergences in volume and price emerged late in the session, hinting at potential profit-taking.

24-Hour Price Action and Turnover

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001903 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and surged to an intraday high of 0.002006 before consolidating and closing at 0.001970 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume over 24 hours reached 20.4 billion units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥39.6 billion.

Structure & Formations

A strong bullish breakout above the 0.00196 support-turned-resistance level was confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle and a follow-through rally to 0.002006. A key resistance appears to form at the 20-period Bollinger Band upper edge, currently near 0.002015. A recent bearish divergence in volume occurred between 05:45 and 06:00 ET, hinting at potential profit-taking.

Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate support levels are seen at 0.001966 and 0.001955. Resistance levels stand at 0.002006 and 0.002020. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with 0.001992, where price appears to have stalled during early consolidation.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is bullish, crossing above the 50-period MA and confirming a short-term uptrend. Daily 50- and 100-period MAs are also aligned bullish, supporting the continuation case. The RSI climbed to 75–77, indicating overbought conditions, while the MACD (12, 26, 9) remains in positive territory with a rising histogram, suggesting persistent buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply during the early hours of the session, with price spiking above the upper Bollinger Band by as much as 1.8%. This expansion suggests heightened risk of a mean reversion pullback in the near term. The bands currently sit between 0.001945 and 0.002015. Price has remained above the 20-period MA throughout the day, maintaining bullish momentum.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the breakout phase between 22:15 and 00:30 ET, with several 15-minute intervals recording over 800 million units traded. Notional turnover rose in tandem with price, confirming strength rather than a divergence. However, volume declined during the 05:00–06:30 ET period despite price holding above 0.001975, suggesting potential profit-taking and caution ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute high of 0.002006 and low of 0.001966 form a swing range for retracement analysis. The 38.2% level is at 0.001984, and the 61.8% is at 0.001977, both of which appear to be key watchpoints for potential consolidation or resumption of the uptrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish pattern and overbought RSI readings, a backtest strategy could target a short-term countertrend pullback using a 75 RSI level as an exit trigger. A long entry could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.001977) with a stop below 0.001966. If a bullish continuation forms, the 0.002010–0.002020 zone represents a viable target. This setup aligns with the MACD and 50-period MA bullish crossover on the 15-minute chart, offering a balanced risk-reward profile for short-term traders.

Outlook and Risk

The immediate bias remains bullish, with the 0.001970–0.001975 zone acting as a critical support. A break above 0.002006 could extend the rally toward 0.002010. However, a failure to hold above 0.001965 may invite a pullback to 0.001955. Investors should remain cautious of divergences and be prepared for increased volatility in the next 24 hours.