Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT)

Summary

• Price closed slightly lower at 9.96e-06 after a mixed 24-hour session with limited momentum.
• Key resistance at 9.97e-06 and support at 9.91e-06 were tested multiple times.
• Volume surged in early morning ET, but price failed to sustain higher levels.

Opening Narrative

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at 9.82e-06 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 9.98e-06 before closing at 9.96e-06 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session recorded a total volume of 5.28e+11 SHIB and a notional turnover of $515 million.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, SHIBUSDT tested key resistance levels at 9.97e-06 and 9.95e-06, with several candlesticks forming bearish signals. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 00:30 ET after a brief rally. The price also probed support at 9.91e-06 multiple times, but it has held firm as of the 12:00 ET close. The absence of a strong bullish reversal pattern indicates that buyers are cautious despite intermittent bullish attempts.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart converged near 9.94e-06, suggesting a potential equilibrium zone. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at 9.92e-06, and the 200-day MA at 9.88e-06. Price remains above both, indicating a short-term bullish bias, but the convergence of short-term MAs suggests a possible consolidation phase ahead.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early morning, followed by a flat histogram, signaling waning momentum. RSI reached overbought levels around 1.00e-05 before retreating, indicating that the recent rally lacked conviction. As of 12:00 ET, RSI is at 53, pointing to a neutral momentum phase with potential for either a continuation or a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the rally in the early morning, with price reaching near the upper Bollinger Band at 9.97e-06. By 06:00 ET, the bands began to contract, indicating a potential period of consolidation. As of the close, price sits just below the upper band, suggesting that traders may continue testing this level over the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early morning ET (00:30–02:00) with a total notional turnover of over $120 million during that period. However, price failed to sustain the higher levels, suggesting that the volume may have been driven by profit-taking rather than new bullish sentiment. A divergence between volume and price action during the 02:00–04:00 ET window further signals weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn on the 02:30–05:00 ET swing showed 61.8% retracement at 9.92e-06 and 38.2% at 9.95e-06. The 61.8% level appears to have held as support, and the price is now hovering near the 38.2% retracement. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bull move is at 9.90e-06, suggesting a potential support zone for the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The strategy tested using the Bullish Engulfing pattern on SHIBUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-09 yielded a total return of -32.9% with a -5.3% annualised return, underscoring its underperformance against market benchmarks. The 5-day fixed hold approach failed to capture sustained bullish momentum, as evidenced by the max drawdown of -46.9%. Winning trades averaged +5.8%, but losing trades averaged -4.7%, with a win rate of only ~45%. These findings align with the technical analysis, which shows that bullish signals often lack the volume and momentum to sustain a rally.