Market Overview: Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Snapshot

• Price declined from a high of $1.278e-05 to $1.232e-05 with a closing of $1.225e-05.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions as price approaches key support levels.
• Bollinger Bands show increasing contraction indicating a potential breakout.
• Volume dipped in the last 6 hours but picked up sharply below $1.24e-05.
• A bearish engulfing pattern confirmed sell pressure in the 15-minute chart.

Price Action and Volume Summary

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at $1.259e-05 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $1.288e-05, and closed at $1.225e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The price action over 24 hours displayed a significant bearish bias, with a total trading volume of 1.853e+11 and a notional turnover that exceeded $12.5 billion (calculated from the volume times average price).

Structure and Candlestick Formations

The price structure over the past 24 hours revealed several key levels. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 2025-10-03 17:00 and 17:15 ET, confirming the shift in momentum. A strong support level appears to be forming near $1.223e-05 after a sharp decline in the latter half of the day. Additionally, the price has shown a series of smaller doji candles in the last 3 hours, indicating indecision and potential consolidation ahead of a possible breakout.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is bearish, with the price currently below the 50-period average, indicating a strong downtrend. On a daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory, below 30, suggesting the possibility of a short-term rebound. However, the MACD remains negative with a bearish divergence, indicating continued selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have seen a contraction in the past 4 hours, narrowing from a width of 0.000010 to 0.000004, suggesting reduced volatility and a potential breakout in the near future. The price is currently testing the lower band at $1.223e-05, which could act as a temporary floor. However, if the contraction continues and the price fails to break above the midline, further downward movement may follow.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $1.288e-05 to $1.225e-05 shows the price currently at approximately the 61.8% level. This suggests that $1.223e-05 could act as a key support zone to watch for potential buying interest. A break below this level would likely bring the 78.6% retracement at $1.212e-05 into focus, which could be the next test for the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

For the backtest strategy described, the 24-hour chart data suggests a possible application involving breakout triggers at the Bollinger Band contraction and Fibonacci retracement levels. A viable hypothesis would involve entering a long position on a break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss just below the most recent low at $1.223e-05. A short position could also be considered on a break below $1.212e-05, confirming a deeper bearish move. This approach leverages both technical structure and momentum indicators for potential trade signals.