Market Overview: Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) – 2025-10-14

• SHIBUSDT declined from a 24-hour high of $0.00001129 to close at $0.00001032, down 8.7%.
• Momentum shifted bearish with RSI at 38.2% and MACD trending lower.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening; price tested lower band.
• Volume surged to $120.82B in the final 15-min window, signaling heightened selling pressure.
• A bearish breakdown below key support at $0.0000105 confirmed short-term weakness.

24-Hour Price and Trading Summary

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at $0.00001100 on October 13, 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00001129, and closed at $0.00001032 at the same time on October 14. The pair experienced a total volume of approximately 241,543,204,133 tokens, with a notional turnover of around $12.08 billion. The price action reflects increased bearish momentum, with a clear breakdown from key intraday levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period shows a consistent bearish bias, marked by multiple engulfing patterns and a long bearish tail in the final session. Key support levels were tested and broken, including the $0.0000105 level, which previously acted as a psychological barrier. Resistance remains strong near $0.0000110 and $0.00001125, while the short-term support zone appears to be consolidating around $0.0000103–$0.00001015. A strong bearish reversal signal is evident from the formation of a “Bearish Abandoned Baby” pattern in the late trading hours on October 13.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, confirming short-term bearish sentiment. The daily chart shows a similar breakdown, with the 50DMA and 100DMA converging toward $0.0000105. Bollinger Bands widened significantly, indicating heightened volatility, and the price tested the lower band multiple times, suggesting oversold conditions. A further breakdown below the 20SMA could trigger deeper short-term bearish momentum.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD line turned bearish with a clear negative divergence, while the histogram contracted in the final hours, signaling weakening bullish momentum. The RSI dipped into neutral to oversold territory, hitting 38.2% at the close. Although not deep into oversold territory, the RSI suggests that further downward pressure may be followed by a bounce if volume cools. However, with MACD showing no signs of a bullish crossover, any rebound appears likely to remain constrained by the $0.0000105–$0.0000107 zone.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume spiked to over $120.82 billion in the final 15-minute window, confirming the breakdown below key support. This high-volume print aligns with a sharp price drop to $0.00001032, indicating a coordinated selling effort. The increase in notional turnover—peaking at $12.08 billion—suggests heightened short-term interest from larger players. However, the divergence between price and volume in the earlier part of the day may suggest a lack of conviction in the prior bullish attempts.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the recent 15-minute swing from $0.0000109 to $0.00001129, the current price sits near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0000103–$0.0000104, suggesting potential for a temporary bounce. For the daily chart, the Fibonacci retracement levels at $0.0000105, $0.0000103, and $0.0000101 are likely to act as key pivot points for near-term price action. A break below $0.0000103 could extend the decline toward $0.0000100–$0.0000098.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed 3-day Bullish Engulfing strategy on SHIBUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14 could provide valuable insights into whether classic candlestick signals remain relevant in the current low-volatility, high-volume environment. This backtest, based on a clear and well-defined rule set—entry on a confirmed Bullish Engulfing pattern and exit after three calendar days—can help validate whether traditional technical indicators can still offer a positive risk-adjusted return in a market where sentiment shifts rapidly. Given the recent bearish momentum, such a strategy would likely face challenges in the current climate, but understanding its historical performance may help contextualize the significance of reversal patterns like the one observed during the 2025-10-13 breakdown.