Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) on 2025-10-12

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• SHIBUSDT traded in a descending range, with price breaking below key intraday support.
• Volume surged during the bearish breakdown, confirming increased bear pressure.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, hinting at potential for short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, with price near the lower band in late session.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest possible short-term retest of 1.008e-05 as near-term support.

Price Action and Daily Summary

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at 1.031e-05 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.002e-05 by 12:00 ET October 12. The pair hit a high of 1.059e-05 and a low of 9.8e-06, with total trading volume of 678,858,472,690.0 SHIB and a notional turnover of approximately 68.58 USDT (based on volume * close price). The price action reveals a bearish bias, with the breakdown from intraday support confirming a likely continuation of the downward trend in the near term.

Structure & Key Levels

The candlestick pattern from 19:15 to 23:45 ET formed a bearish divergence with a large-bodied red candle at 9.96e-05 followed by a long lower shadow and a bearish engulfing pattern at 9.8e-05, signaling a potential trend reversal. Key support levels are currently at 9.8e-06 and 9.7e-06, while resistance is at 1.005e-05 and 1.01e-05. A break below 9.8e-06 could accelerate downward momentum.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish cross with the 20-period moving average crossing below the 50-period line, while on the daily chart, the 50-period MA is now below the 200-period MA—signaling bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened in the afternoon, indicating increased volatility, with price testing the lower band multiple times in the final hours of the session. Price remains near the lower band, suggesting overbought bear pressure and potential consolidation.

Indicators and Momentum

RSI reached oversold territory around 9.8e-06 and bounced to a neutral zone, indicating potential for a pullback. MACD confirmed bearish momentum with a negative histogram and a bearish crossover at 9.8e-06. The price-volume divergence in the final hours—where price dipped but volume increased—suggests bearish conviction. However, the RSI bounce may support a short-term rebound near 9.9e-06–1.002e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on RSI oversold signals combined with bearish engulfing patterns and bearish moving average crossovers could be applied to SHIBUSDT. Entries would be triggered when RSI < 30, a bearish engulfing candle forms, and the 20/50 MA cross confirms bearish momentum. A stop-loss would be placed above the prior swing high, with a target at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This setup aligns with the observed behavior from the 19:15–20:00 ET breakdown and could provide a viable short-term bearish trade.