Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• SHIBUSDT traded in a descending channel overnight, with a 0.96% 24-hour decline to $0.00001266
• Volume spiked to $105B at 17:15 ET but failed to break above $0.00001270
• RSI remained below 50 through the session, signaling weak bullish momentum
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred between 19:30–20:00 ET before a modest bounce

The 24-hour period for SHIBUSDT began at $0.00001259 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of $0.00001288, and closed at $0.00001266 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded in a range-bound pattern, with bearish pressure dominating after an initial attempt at a breakout at $0.00001270. Total notional volume amounted to $329.3B, while turnover was $41.2B, with the largest volume spike occurring at 17:15 ET at $105.3B.

Price action showed a bearish continuation pattern with key support forming near $0.00001260 and resistance at $0.00001273. A bearish engulfing pattern at 17:15 ET confirmed the reversal from a morning high, followed by a doji at 22:45 ET indicating indecision. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in a slight bearish alignment, with the 50-period line acting as a key resistance during the overnight consolidation.

MACD & RSI Signals

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the morning session, signaling a bearish turn, while RSI remained between 40–50 for much of the period, indicating neutral to bearish sentiment. A brief overbought condition at $0.00001288 did not lead to a meaningful rally, suggesting limited bullish conviction.

The 15-minute Bollinger Bands showed a slight expansion during the overnight consolidation phase, with prices testing the lower band at $0.00001261 and bouncing toward the midline before settling near the upper half. Volatility remained moderate, with no significant contractions indicating a lack of short-term range-bound pressure.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume diverged from price at 17:15 ET, where a large volume spike coincided with a bearish reversal and a failed breakout. The highest turnover occurred during this candle, confirming the bearish bias. However, later in the session, volume decreased significantly, especially between 00:30–04:00 ET, indicating a lack of follow-through for either buyers or sellers.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from $0.00001259 to $0.00001288, key levels at 38.2% (~$0.00001273) and 61.8% (~$0.00001269) were tested but rejected. A bearish bounce off 61.8% occurred at 00:00 ET, reinforcing the idea that these levels could act as dynamic resistance ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve entering short positions on SHIBUSDT when the price closes below the 50-period 15-minute moving average and the RSI drops below 50, with a stop-loss placed at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level. This would align with the observed bearish momentum and failed breakouts. A target for the short could be the support at $0.00001260, which may be tested in the coming 24 hours if bearish pressure intensifies.