Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) – 2025-09-24

• SHIB/USDT traded in a tight range, showing no clear directional bias over the past 24 hours.
• Price dipped below key intraday resistance but found support near 1.210e-05.
• Volume surged during the 03:30–04:15 ET window, coinciding with a sharp price drop.
• RSI and MACD remain neutral, suggesting consolidation rather than momentum.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-day before widening as volatility increased overnight.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23, SHIB/USDT opened at 1.221e-05 and traded within a range of 1.218e-05 to 1.237e-05 before closing at 1.222e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 5.382e+11 SHIB, with a notional turnover of approximately $6.587 million (assuming $1.222e-05). The pair ended the day near the 50-period 15-minute moving average, with no clear breakout above or below key levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed several key features. A long bearish shadow formed during the 03:30–04:15 ET window, as SHIB/USDT fell from 1.215e-05 to 1.190e-05 before partially recovering. This suggests short-term bearish exhaustion. Around 06:30–07:30 ET, a bullish consolidation pattern emerged, with price forming a series of higher lows and narrowing ranges. A potential support level formed near 1.210e-05, where the price found a floor three times in the 03:30–05:30 window. Notably, a small engulfing pattern formed during 14:30–15:45 ET, indicating potential bullish momentum if this level is retested.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed near 1.220e-05, forming a neutral “channel” for the day. The MACD remained around the zero line with no clear divergence, suggesting no significant momentum. RSI, which typically would signal overbought conditions above 60 or oversold below 40, hovered between 45 and 55 for most of the day, indicating range-bound trading. The only deviation occurred during the 03:30–04:15 window, where RSI briefly dropped to 38, hinting at oversold conditions that coincided with the sharp price drop.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands contracted around 05:30–06:30 ET, signaling a potential breakout. Price remained within the band for the majority of the day, but during the 03:30–04:15 ET period, it briefly dipped below the lower band, reaching 1.190e-05 before bouncing back. This move coincided with a notable volume spike and may suggest a temporary oversold condition. By the end of the 24-hour window, volatility had increased, with price testing the upper band in the final 30 minutes, indicating growing bullish interest.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was unusually high between 03:30 and 05:30 ET, with the 03:30–04:15 window recording the largest single-volume spike of the day (8.701e+10 SHIB). This coincided with the steepest price drop of the session. However, no corresponding bearish candlestick pattern, such as a long bearish body, confirmed the move. This volume divergence may suggest a potential reversal or at least a pause in the bearish momentum. In contrast, the final 30-minute window (11:45–12:00 ET) showed a modest increase in volume and price action moving above the 50-period MA, suggesting renewed buyer interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 03:30–04:15 ET move (high of 1.215e-05 to low of 1.190e-05), the 38.2% level came in at 1.201e-05 and was tested at 05:30 and 06:30 ET. The 61.8% level at 1.208e-05 held as a minor support, with price bouncing off it twice in the 06:30–07:30 window. On the daily chart, the 200-period moving average sits at 1.216e-05, aligning with the 23.6% retracement level from a recent major swing. This level appears to have served as a soft support during the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using the 50-period and 20-period moving averages as a crossover system, paired with RSI divergences. The 03:30–04:15 ET volume spike without a corresponding bearish candlestick may signal a false breakdown, making it an ideal entry point for a long trade with a stop loss just below the 1.208e-05 support. The subsequent rally above the 50-period MA and the bullish engulfing pattern at 14:30–15:45 ET support a buy-on-dip strategy. This aligns with the observed price behavior and could be tested for effectiveness in range-bound markets.