Market Overview: Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) – 2025-09-19

• Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) declined by 1.8% over 24 hours, closing below key support at 1.33e-05.
• Volume increased sharply after 12:00 ET, signaling renewed bearish interest.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed into a tight range overnight, indicating low volatility ahead.
• Price failed to hold above 1.34e-05, with bearish engulfing patterns forming in late ET sessions.

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at 1.347e-05 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.301e-05 on 2025-09-19 at the same time, with a high of 1.359e-05 and low of 1.282e-05. The pair traded with a total volume of 665.5 billion SHIB and a notional turnover of 85,830 USDT across the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish bias throughout the session, with several bearish engulfing patterns forming between 19:00 ET and 01:00 ET. Key support levels emerged at 1.33e-05 and 1.30e-05, with the latter acting as a recent floor after a 7.6% drop in 6 hours. Resistance remains at 1.35e-05 and 1.36e-05, both failing to hold amid declining buying pressure. A long lower wick at 12:00 ET suggests some short-covering, but bears regained control after 04:15 ET with a decisive breakdown below 1.34e-05.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50SMA acted as a minor resistance between 1.34e-05 and 1.345e-05, failing to hold on multiple attempts. Daily averages show the 50DMA at 1.347e-05 and 200DMA at 1.351e-05, both of which have now become overhead resistance. A bearish crossover may be forming as price continues to underperform key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram turned negative after 19:00 ET, with the line crossing below the signal line to confirm a bearish divergence. RSI entered oversold territory at 29.3, suggesting a short-term bounce may be possible. However, price failed to close above 1.33e-05, which could indicate a false recovery. A sustained move above 1.34e-05 could see a temporary rally, but RSI readings remain weak for a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted between 00:00 ET and 04:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands tightening around the 1.33e-05–1.34e-05 range. Price subsequently broke below the lower band at 04:15 ET, signaling an aggressive short-term bearish move. The 2.5% expansion in the upper band after 01:30 ET indicates increased volatility in a bullish direction, but this was swiftly negated by large bearish closes later in the session.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover spiked at 04:15 ET, with 34.8 billion USDT in notional value traded as price fell to 1.292e-05. Volume also surged at 01:30 ET, coinciding with a failed attempt to break above 1.35e-05. Notable divergence occurred around 19:00 ET, where volume surged but price failed to make a higher high. This suggests bearish exhaustion may be near, but the overall trend remains down.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings from 1.359e-05 to 1.282e-05 show key Fibonacci levels at 1.33e-05 (23.6%) and 1.30e-05 (38.2%). The 61.8% level sits at 1.29e-05, where price found some temporary support before breaking lower. A bounce above 1.33e-05 could trigger a retracement toward 1.35e-05, but without sustained volume, this may remain speculative.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing patterns and RSI entering oversold territory, a potential short-term bounce scenario could be backtested using a Fibonacci-based mean reversion strategy. The approach would enter long positions on a close above the 23.6% retracement level at 1.33e-05, with a stop-loss placed below 1.32e-05 and a take-profit target near 1.34e-05. This hypothesis aligns with the current technical setup and would benefit from increased volatility around key resistance levels, offering a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:0.8.