Market Overview for Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• SHIBUSDT broke above key resistance levels, with strong bullish momentum and high volume driving a 15-minute rally.
• Price closed near the session high, with RSI signaling overbought conditions and potential for consolidation or pullback.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the afternoon surge, indicating increased volatility and possible continuation.
• Volume remained elevated throughout the rally, confirming price strength and aligning with the upward move.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest a potential pullback to the 61.8% level at ~$1.328, but continuation above $1.355 remains viable.

The 24-hour session for SHIBUSDT on 2025-09-18 saw a strong bullish breakout. The pair opened at $0.00001297, hit a high of $0.00001361, and closed at $0.00001336. Total volume was 924,488,017,410.0 SHIB, with a notional turnover of ~$12,258,968 (based on SHIB price estimates). The price action showed a strong 15-minute rally in the early afternoon, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern and increasing volume.

Structure and formations over the 24 hours included a key bullish engulfing pattern during the 19:30–20:00 ET period and a bearish divergence in the later hours. Support levels appeared to hold at ~$0.00001327 and ~$0.00001315, while resistance was tested at ~$0.00001345 and ~$0.00001361. Notable patterns included a doji near $0.00001356, hinting at indecision, and a large bullish candle confirming the breakout.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in favor of the bulls, supporting the upward move. The daily 50-period MA sat below the current price, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. The MACD showed a positive divergence, confirming momentum, while the RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting potential for a short-term correction. Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout phase, indicating heightened volatility and increased trader participation.

Volume and turnover were aligned with the upward move, with the largest single candle (19:30–20:00 ET) seeing $5,185,623 in notional turnover. Fibonacci retracement levels based on the key 15-minute swing indicate a potential pullback to ~$0.00001328, but continuation above $0.00001355 could signal further gains. A close below ~$0.00001315 may trigger deeper support testing.

The forward-looking view is cautiously bullish. If volume remains strong and the 15-minute momentum holds above the 50-period moving average, SHIBUSDT may retest the $0.00001361 high. However, a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.00001328 could offer a re-entry opportunity. Investors should watch for a breakdown of the $0.00001315 support level as a key risk trigger.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when a bullish engulfing pattern forms above the 50-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed just below the pattern's low. Based on the 15-minute candlestick on 2025-09-17 at 19:30 ET, a long entry at $0.00001315 would have captured the subsequent rally to $0.00001356, yielding a gain of ~3.1%. A stop-loss at $0.00001291 would have limited risk during the early pullback phase. If applied consistently to similar patterns, this setup could show a positive risk-reward profile over a 15-minute to 1-hour time horizon.