Market Overview: Shiba Inu (SHIBUSD) – 24-Hour Action and Key Levels

• Price broke lower from flat consolidation, forming a bearish breakout pattern late in the 24-hour window.
• Volume surged during key price declines, validating downward momentum.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, hinting at a potential bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction followed by expansion, indicating shifting volatility.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential support at $0.00001218 and $0.00001198.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-01, SHIBUSD opened at $0.00001233, hit a high of $0.00001250, and a low of $0.00001198 before closing at $0.00001229. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was 330,262,816 tokens, with a notional turnover of approximately $4.06 million (based on $0.0000123 average price).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern reveals a bearish breakdown from a consolidation range that had held for most of the session. A key bearish signal was observed during the 09:00–10:45 ET window, with a sharp decline in price and a notable volume spike during the candle ending at 10:45 ET, where SHIBUSD dropped from $0.00001250 to $0.00001229. This candle could indicate a rejection of higher prices and a shift in sentiment. Additionally, during the early morning hours, a small bullish engulfing pattern occurred, but it was quickly invalidated by the following price action.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in a bearish crossover for most of the session, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages also showed a bearish configuration, while the 200-day MA acted as a distant reference point, remaining well above the current price. The short-term bearish alignment of the moving averages suggests the downtrend is likely to continue in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained below the zero line for most of the 24-hour period, with bearish divergence observed between price and the MACD histogram in the afternoon and early evening hours. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 during the 03:00–06:00 ET timeframe, indicating a potential short-term bounce. However, this must be confirmed with a close above the $0.00001230 level to gain conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction during the early hours of the morning, followed by a significant expansion after 03:00 ET. The price moved to the lower band during the 03:15–04:15 ET period, signaling heightened volatility and a potential continuation of the downtrend. The current price is now near the lower band again, suggesting a test of support could be imminent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key price declines, particularly between 03:00–04:15 ET and 10:45–11:45 ET. These spikes in volume confirmed the bearish moves and suggested strong selling pressure during those periods. Notional turnover also increased during these times, reinforcing the idea that larger participants may have been accumulating short positions or exiting longs. The divergence between volume and price during the small bounce in the early morning hours is also worth noting, as it suggests a lack of conviction in the reversal attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $0.00001233 to $0.00001229, key support levels include the 38.2% level at $0.00001218 and the 61.8% level at $0.00001198. Both of these levels have shown prior price reactions during the session, particularly the $0.00001218 level, which acted as a temporary floor before the price continued lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical structure observed in the 24-hour session—including bearish breakouts, confirmed by high volume and bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI—a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry on a close below key support levels (e.g., $0.00001218) with a stop above the nearest resistance. A trailing stop or fixed profit target could be used based on the recent volatility observed in the Bollinger Bands. This aligns with the current bearish setup and provides a systematic approach to leveraging the identified downtrend. Given the low RSI and high volume, this strategy could yield favorable risk-reward setups for short-term traders.