Market Overview: Shentu/Tether USDt (CTKUSDT)

• Shentu/Tether USDt (CTKUSDT) rose from 0.3287 to 0.3374 in a 24-hour rally, with strong volume and bullish momentum.
• Price broke above a prior resistance cluster near 0.3345–0.335 and formed a bullish engulfing pattern mid-day.
• RSI surged into overbought territory, but volume confirmed the move; Bollinger Bands expanded, signaling increased volatility.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.3357 and 0.3386 acted as key pivots during the rally.
• High-volume spikes in the afternoon and evening confirmed bullish continuation, but divergences in turnover may hint at fatigue.

Shentu/Tether USDt (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3287 on 2025-09-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.3374 before closing at 0.3374 at 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour volume amounted to 263,725.5 with a notional turnover of 84,411.6 USD. The asset demonstrated strong momentum and a clear shift in short-term sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The price moved decisively above key resistance levels, particularly in the 0.334–0.335 range, confirming a bullish breakout. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed around 10:45–11:00 ET, signaling potential continuation. The price also tested and held above the 0.3345–0.335 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level during the afternoon, with a further test at 0.3374 acting as a new near-term high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) were in a bullish crossover, supporting the upward bias. The daily chart showed the 50-period SMA at 0.3324, and the 100 and 200-period SMAs at 0.3308 and 0.3302 respectively, reinforcing the positive trend as price rose above all of them by the final hour.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a positive divergence with a strong bullish histogram in the afternoon and evening. RSI surged past 65, reaching into overbought territory, peaking at ~71. However, the strong volume and price action confirmed the move rather than indicating exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described utilizes a breakout and confirmation framework, where a long entry is triggered upon a bullish engulfing pattern forming above a key Fibonacci level and confirmed by a 20SMA crossing above 50SMA with rising volume. A stop-loss is placed just below the prior swing low. Based on today’s pattern and volume confirmation, this strategy would have entered near 0.3345 and exited at or near the 0.3374 high, resulting in a favorable risk-reward outcome. The RSI overbought reading also aligns with the strategy’s exit criteria of 70+ with price near the upper Bollinger Band.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the afternoon and early evening, reflecting increased volatility and market participation. Price traded near the upper band multiple times, especially around the 0.336–0.3374 range, reinforcing the strength of the upward move. The bands did not contract prior to the breakout, suggesting that the rally was not a result of a consolidation phase but rather a continuation of momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the late afternoon and evening, especially around 17:00–19:00 ET and again at 23:45–00:00 ET, coinciding with key price levels. Notional turnover increased in tandem, validating the price action rather than contradicting it. A divergence between volume and price movement was not observed, suggesting that the upward move is broadly supported by market participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.3345–0.335 level was a significant Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of a prior 15-minute swing move. Price held and then broke above this level with strong volume, triggering a secondary wave to 0.3374. The 0.3374 level also aligned with a Fibonacci extension of the earlier move. Traders may watch the 0.3398–0.3401 as the next potential target based on the extension of this wave.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see a test of 0.3398–0.3401 as a key resistance cluster, with RSI and MACD likely to remain in overbought territory until this level is either broken or rejected. Investors should watch for a volume contraction or divergence in the next rally as a potential sign of exhaustion. Risk remains to the downside should support at 0.3358 break, though this appears unlikely for now.