Market Overview for Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

• Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) declined sharply overnight, forming a bearish breakdown from key resistance levels.
• A massive volume spike and a 28% drop in price from 0.3337 to 0.2950 indicate significant short-term selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD confirmed oversold territory, with price rebounding off the lower Bollinger Band but lacking follow-through.
• Volume surged during the sell-off but dropped off during the rebound, suggesting fading momentum.
• Price is now consolidating around 0.3045 with a key 61.8% Fib support at 0.2941 to watch.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3447, peaked at 0.3481, and closed at 0.3048 following a significant sell-off. The 24-hour candle formed a bearish structure with a low of 0.2700. Total volume was 6,576,040.9 and turnover (notional value) reached approximately $1,997,866.4, reflecting strong market participation during the decline.

Structure & Formations

Price exhibited a strong bearish bias overnight, forming a sharp breakdown from the 0.3450–0.3480 resistance cluster. A long lower wick on the 19:30 candle (ET) at 0.3387 suggested rejection at key support, leading to a continuation of the downward move. The 21:00 candle marked a key fractal low at 0.3104 and confirmed a bearish momentum shift. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 21:15 as price dropped from 0.3136 to 0.2950, signaling increased bear pressure. A doji formed at 03:45 (0.2886), hinting at a potential near-term consolidation phase.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both dipped below price, reinforcing bearish bias. MACD lines remained negative throughout the session, with bearish crossovers occurring after 21:00. The RSI dropped below 30 during the sell-off, reaching as low as 24, indicating strong oversold conditions. Price found support around the 30.45–30.55 level, with RSI starting to show a tentative reversal, but without a clear confirmation candle.

Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, reaching a volatility high of 0.3109–0.3337, with price closing near the lower band at 0.3048. A contraction is forming, suggesting potential for a breakout or reversal in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sell-off, particularly during the 19:30–21:45 window, with the largest single candle (21:00) reaching a volume of 341,466.2 and turnover of ~$112,697.5. This was a critical pivot point as price broke below the 0.3337 level. Conversely, volume during the 03:45–07:00 recovery phase was significantly lower, indicating weak follow-through in the rebound. The divergence between price and volume raises concerns about the sustainability of the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the recent 0.3337–0.2700 move (15-minute chart) are as follows:- 23.6% at 0.3162- 38.2% at 0.3086- 61.8% at 0.2941

Price is currently consolidating just above the 38.2% level at ~0.3045–0.3060, indicating that a test of the 61.8% support at 0.2941 could be in play. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger swing from 0.3481 to 0.2700 aligns with the 0.3045 level, offering a confluence area for near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern forming on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a break below the lower Bollinger Band and RSI below 30. A stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high at 0.3085, with a take-profit targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.2941. This setup was triggered on the 21:15 candle (ET) and executed effectively during the overnight sell-off. The strategy would benefit from additional volume confirmation and a strong MACD bearish crossover to improve signal reliability and reduce false breakouts.