Market Overview for Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) – 2025-10-26

• Price declined sharply from 0.3333 to 0.3093 within the first 5 hours of the day, reflecting significant bearish momentum.
• CTKUSDT found temporary support near 0.313–0.314, with a modest rebound observed, but failed to retest former levels above 0.320.
• Volatility spiked during the early hours, with over 700k traded volume in a 15-minute period, followed by consolidation.
• Turnover diverged from price after 0.320, suggesting weakening conviction in the bullish move.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged from 0.3218 to 0.3093, signaling a potential reversal in buyer sentiment.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3333 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET and dropped to a low of 0.3076, reaching a high of 0.3333. It closed at 0.3243 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-26. The total traded volume over the 24-hour window was 3,626,261.5, with a turnover of $1,187,715.04, assuming a notional value of 0.3243 per unit.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish bias dominated by large bearish candles in the first 5 hours of the session, particularly between 01:30 and 01:45 ET, when it dropped from 0.3218 to 0.3093. A bearish engulfing pattern formed over this period, suggesting a breakdown of previous support levels. Key support levels emerged at 0.314 and 0.313, with some short-covering observed afterward. A doji at 0.3206–0.3208 on 2025-10-26 at 10:45 ET hinted at indecision after the rebound.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish bias as the price broke below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, with the 50-period line falling below the 20-period line, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA acted as resistance during the rebound but failed to hold. The 200-period MA remains a critical long-term support level, currently around 0.318–0.320.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish as the line crossed below the signal line during the sharp selloff, with the histogram showing increasing negative divergence. RSI fell into oversold territory briefly around 0.3093 but failed to rebound strongly, indicating weak follow-through buying. RSI values remained below 50 for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the early selloff, with the bands widening as the price moved from the upper to the lower band in less than 2 hours. The price tested the lower band at 0.3093, but did not close below it, suggesting some level of support. A contraction in the bands is expected in the coming hours, which may precede a breakout or reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp selloff, with over 700k units traded in a single 15-minute candle. This coincided with a significant drop in turnover as prices fell, indicating bearish conviction with lower liquidity. The divergence between volume and turnover after the 0.320 level suggests weakening bullish sentiment. The rebound after 0.314 was accompanied by moderate volume, indicating limited follow-through demand.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute selloff from 0.3218 to 0.3093, the price found support at the 61.8% level around 0.314, aligning with the observed consolidation. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are at 0.322 and 0.325, respectively, and could serve as potential resistance if the price attempts a recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the viability of a strategy based on RSI-oversold conditions for CTKUSDT, it is essential to clarify the specific data source and ticker format being used. The current analysis has identified that the price fell into oversold territory during the selloff, but without accurate RSI values, a full backtest cannot be executed. Once the correct symbol and exchange are confirmed, a 5-day-hold backtest can be conducted to assess the strategy’s performance. Given the current divergence in volume and price, and the lack of a strong rebound from oversold levels, the reliability of such a strategy may be lower in a highly volatile market like Shentu.

Forward-Looking View

The price may consolidate around the 0.314–0.320 range in the next 24 hours, with a potential for a test of the 0.3246 level before facing further resistance. A failure to reclaim 0.325 could deepen the bearish bias. Investors should closely monitor volume and RSI for signs of exhaustion or recovery.

Risk caveat: Sharp price swings and divergence between volume and price could lead to further uncertainty; position sizing should account for potential volatility.