Market Overview for Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) - 2025-10-09

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• Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) fell 5.3% over 24 hours, closing at 0.3421 after a sharp selloff post-noon ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.3650, followed by a 10% drop below key support at 0.3579.
• Volatility spiked with a 3.7% range during the selloff, while RSI entered oversold territory at 28.
• Turnover reached $3.4M at the low, with volume confirming the break below 0.3520.
• Bollinger Bands compressed before the drop, suggesting a period of consolidation ended violently.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3421, having traded as high as 0.3686 and as low as 0.3391 in the previous 24 hours. The closing price at 12:00 ET was 0.3421, reflecting a total volume of 1,281,428.3 and a notional turnover of approximately $443,463. The market exhibited clear bearish momentum, particularly after noon ET, with a large bearish candle confirming a breakdown.

Structure and price action revealed a key support at 0.3579 and resistance at 0.3650. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.3650, signaling a shift in sentiment. The breakdown below 0.3579 led to a 10% drop toward 0.3421, with a doji near 0.3462 indicating indecision and potential short-term consolidation. No clear reversal signals emerged, but the 0.3420-0.3450 range appears to be the immediate battleground.

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Moving averages highlighted the bearish trend. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.3520) and 50-period MA (0.3505) crossed below key support levels, confirming the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (0.3620), 100-period MA (0.3650), and 200-period MA (0.3680) formed a bearish alignment, reinforcing the long-term weakness.

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MACD turned bearish after 17:00 ET, with a crossover to negative territory and a bearish histogram. RSI entered oversold territory at 28, indicating potential for a near-term bounce, though a reversal is not confirmed without a strong bullish candle. Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction between 19:00 and 22:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion during the selloff. Price remained near the lower band during the drop, suggesting volatility remained elevated.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart showed a key 61.8% level at 0.3535, which was broken decisively. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bull move is at 0.3410, suggesting a potential short-term floor. The 38.2% level at 0.3585 may retest if the market stabilizes.

Volume and turnover spiked during the selloff, particularly between 19:00 and 22:00 ET, when $3.4M was traded. The volume confirmed the breakdown below 0.3520, reinforcing the bearish bias. No major divergence was observed between price and turnover, suggesting the move was driven by genuine selling pressure rather than manipulative activity.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy for backtesting could involve a short entry on a breakdown of the 15-minute 50-period MA, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI falling below 30. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a target at the next Fibonacci 61.8% level. This approach would align with the recent price action and could be tested over multiple cycles to assess consistency and risk-reward profile.

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