Market Overview for Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) on 2025-09-24

• Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) closed 0.3526 after a volatile 24-hour session with a range of 0.35–0.3722.
• A major bearish reversal occurred post-0.3722 high, with sharp volume spikes confirming downward momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions earlier, but price failed to hold key support above 0.36.
• Bollinger Bands show compressed volatility during the decline, suggesting potential for a rebound or further drop.
• On-chain volume spiked during the sell-off, indicating strong conviction in the short-term bearish bias.

Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3565 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.3778, and closed at 0.3526 as of 2025-09-24 12:00 ET. Total volume was 1,620,832.8, while notional turnover came in at $592,734.20. The pair experienced sharp swings and divergences in the final hours of the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern on CTKUSDT showed a strong bearish bias following a failed attempt to break above 0.3722. After reaching a high of 0.3778 in the morning, price collapsed into a broad bearish reversal formation. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 0.3722 and 0.3682, followed by a long bearish tail between 0.3637 and 0.3682. Key resistance levels include 0.3637 and 0.3705, while key support levels are at 0.3550 and 0.3529. A doji formed near 0.3564 in the final hour, suggesting indecision among buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bearish divergence after 0.3722, signaling strong downward momentum. The 50-period MA dipped below the 20-period MA, indicating a shift in sentiment. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be a key hurdle in the near term, currently at 0.3578. The 100-period and 200-period MAs also remain above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias for near-term traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory and accelerated downward after the 0.3722 peak, with the signal line closely tracking the histogram, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70, but price failed to hold above 0.3628, leading to a bearish divergence. RSI is now below 50, indicating moderate bearish momentum. A retest of the 50-level on RSI may offer a potential entry point for short-term contrarian traders, though caution is warranted due to the strong volume-driven sell-off.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of expansion following the 0.3778 high, with price quickly retreating below the lower band. Volatility appears to have contracted after the 0.3637–0.3682 correction, indicating a consolidation phase ahead. Price is currently hovering near the lower band, which may serve as a short-term floor if volume remains muted. Traders should watch for a potential rebound off the 0.3529 level or a further break below 0.3500, which could extend the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply during the 0.3722–0.3682 sell-off, with a massive candle at 0.3682–0.3637 showing a turnover of $117,767. This confirms strong conviction among sellers. Notional turnover also spiked during the afternoon hours, with a notable divergence between price and turnover occurring after 0.3564. While price failed to hold above key support, volume suggested increased selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.35–0.3778 range, the 38.2% level is at 0.3632 and the 61.8% level at 0.3673. Price briefly tested 0.3673 before retreating, which aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern seen earlier. The 61.8% retracement may serve as a potential short-term resistance for any bullish countertrend. The 0.3529 level (38.2% of the 0.35–0.3638 move) could serve as a support zone in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves using a combination of MACD crossover and RSI divergence signals. Specifically, the strategy looks for a bearish MACD crossover (20/50 EMA) occurring alongside a bearish RSI divergence (price higher, RSI lower) to trigger short entries. Stop-loss is set at 2% above the entry, and take-profit is set at 1.5× the risk. Given the current MACD bearish signal and the overbought RSI divergence observed, the conditions for the strategy align with the recent market action. If applied to the current setup, this strategy would have triggered a short at around 0.3722, with a stop above 0.3794 and a target at 0.3645. The performance of such a signal over the next 24 hours will be a key test of its efficacy in this volatile environment.