Market Overview for Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• Price surged 17.3% to $0.3796 at 00:00:00 ET, followed by sharp profit-taking.
• Volatility expanded sharply on the early morning rally, with 15-minute Bollinger Bands reaching peak width.
• RSI reached 76 at the high, indicating overbought conditions and likely near-term retracement.
• Volume spiked to 722,476.9 at the peak but collapsed in the following hours, signaling a reversal.
• Fibonacci retracement of the 0.3602–0.3796 move shows key support at 0.368 and resistance at 0.386.

24-Hour Price Action and Key Metrics

Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at $0.3608 and surged to a high of $0.3829 before retreating to close at $0.3679 at 12:00 ET. The asset traded within a range of $0.3592 to $0.3829 over the day. Total traded volume reached 4,686,924.3, while notional turnover amounted to $1,705,395.87. The price action reflected a classic "whipsaw" pattern, with sharp bullish and bearish moves occurring in quick succession.

Structure & Formations

The price action from 23:45 ET to 00:00 ET showed a strong bullish breakout, marked by a large-bodied candle forming above key resistance. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the move, suggesting exhaustion in the buying pressure. A series of lower highs and lower lows from 00:15 ET onward formed a descending triangle, which appears to have found support around $0.3680–0.3710. A potential double-bottom structure is emerging in this zone, which could signal a near-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above key support levels in the early morning, giving a bullish signal. However, by midday, the 50-period MA had crossed below the 20-period MA, indicating a potential reversal in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, suggesting a longer-term uptrend remains intact despite the 24-hour consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a sharp bullish crossover at the beginning of the move but quickly diverged from price, with the histogram peaking ahead of the price high. This is a classic sign of overbought conditions and a potential bearish reversal. RSI hit 76 at 00:00 ET, confirming overbought territory, and has since declined sharply into neutral to slightly oversold territory. A reading below 40 could signal a test of Fibonacci support at 0.368, with potential for a rebound if bullish volume re-enters the market.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy targets short-term reversals after overbought RSI levels and bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart. Given the current setup, with RSI pulling back from 76 and a bearish engulfing pattern forming at the peak of the recent move, a sell setup appears valid. If Shentu/Tether closes below 0.368 in the next 24 hours, a stop-loss at 0.3634 would protect against a retracement. A target of 0.359–0.362 aligns with recent support levels and could offer a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.2 if reached, making this a viable short-term bearish trade.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was at its narrowest before 23:45 ET, suggesting a potential breakout. The move above the upper band at 00:00 ET was sharp, reaching a width of 2.3 SDs by 00:30 ET. The price then collapsed below the midline, settling into the lower half of the bands by 05:00 ET. A contraction in band width is now emerging, signaling a potential setup for another breakout in either direction. If the upper band expands again, it would confirm a resumption of bullish momentum; a move below the lower band could signal deeper corrective action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to a peak of 722,476.9 during the early morning rally but has since dropped sharply, with most recent candles trading at 150,000–200,000 units per 15 minutes. This divergence between price and volume supports the bearish reversal narrative. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with a peak at $28,581.64, followed by a decline to $12,800–$15,000 per 15 minutes. The sharp drop in turnover after the high suggests sellers are stepping in without strong buyer interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 0.3602–0.3796 move shows a 38.2% retracement at 0.3718 and a 61.8% retracement at 0.368. The 61.8% level has held on two occasions in the past 12 hours and appears to be a key support zone. A break below 0.368 would trigger a test of the 0.365–0.362 range, which is aligned with the 200-period MA on the daily chart.

Outlook and Risk

The immediate bias is bearish, with the 0.368 level serving as a key watchpoint. A break below 0.362 could trigger a deeper correction toward 0.3592. However, given the broader bullish trend on the daily chart, a rebound to 0.371–0.374 is likely if the price finds support. Traders should remain cautious about the risk of a false breakdown and monitor both RSI and volume for confirmation of further bearish momentum.