Market Overview for SHELLBTC – 2025-11-01

• SHELLBTC edged higher over 24 hours, closing near the daily high with moderate volume.
• A bullish reversal pattern formed late in the session after a sharp drop, suggesting possible short-term support.
• RSI hovered near neutral territory while volume diverged from price gains in the final hours, signaling caution.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, with price rebounding near the lower band.
• MACD turned positive amid the late rally, but momentum remains constrained.

SHELLBTC, the MyShell/Bitcoin pairing, opened at 9.8e-07 (12:00 ET–1), reached a high of 1.07e-06, and closed at 1.07e-06 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-01. Total volume over 24 hours was 768,185.9, while notional turnover amounted to ~$768.2 based on average prices. A late-session rally emerged after a sharp drop in early hours, forming a bullish reversal pattern.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key support level near 9.6e-06, where a rebound occurred. A bearish breakdown attempt failed after a 15-minute candle formed a bullish engulfing pattern at the 2045–2100 UTC window. This pattern may suggest a temporary rejection of the downward trend. A doji formed at 2330 UTC, indicating indecision after the initial upward move. These formations imply that bears may be losing short-term control, although a break below 9.6e-06 could trigger renewed bearish pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price briefly crossed above the 20-period SMA in the final hours, aligning with the bullish reversal. The 50-period SMA remained above the current price, suggesting the longer-term trend is still bearish. For daily charts, the 50/100/200 SMA crossover remains neutral to bearish, with price sitting slightly below the 200-day average. A sustained move above the 50-day SMA could signal a retest of prior resistance.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the final hours of the session, coinciding with the bullish reversal candle. The histogram showed a narrow positive bar, indicating limited momentum. RSI hovered around the 50–55 range throughout the session, neither showing overbought nor oversold conditions. However, a divergence between price and RSI emerged in the last few hours—price rose while RSI flattened—suggesting potential weakness ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the sharp decline in early hours, reflecting increased volatility. Price found support near the lower band at 9.6e-06 and rebounded. By the end of the session, price remained inside the bands, but close to the upper boundary, suggesting a potential overbought condition. A retest of the upper band in the next 24 hours could trigger a correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early sell-off, with a peak of 186,106.4 at 0545 UTC, followed by a sharp drop in activity. The bullish reversal in the late session was accompanied by a volume of 145,950.0, which was significant but not extreme. Turnover confirmed the price move, but the divergence between price gains and lower volume in the final hours raises caution. The lack of confirmation suggests the rally may not have broad participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 9.6e-06 to 1.07e-06, price currently rests near the 61.8% level. This suggests the rally may face resistance at 1.07e-06, where a consolidation is likely. On the daily timeframe, the 38.2% retracement level at ~1.03e-06 could offer support if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the emergence of a bullish engulfing pattern during the late-session rebound, a backtest strategy could be designed to evaluate its reliability as a short-term trade signal. The strategy would involve entering long on confirmation of the pattern—when the close of the engulfing candle exceeds the previous candle’s low—and holding for a 3-day period. To enhance risk control, optional parameters such as a stop-loss at 9.6e-06 or a take-profit at 1.07e-06 could be added. Testing this strategy on a broader dataset from 2022 to 2025 would clarify its viability in SHELLBTC’s volatile environment.