Market Overview for SEIJPY (Sei/Yen)

• Price surged past 24.50 after a bullish morning star pattern formed near support.
• High volume confirmed breakouts above 24.70 and 25.00 key resistance levels.
• MACD turned positive, RSI entered overbought territory, suggesting potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Bands, showing increased market interest.
• Turnover spiked sharply after 03:00 ET, aligning with sharp rally toward 25.53.

The Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) pair opened at 24.26 on 2025-11-06 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 25.53, fell to a low of 24.03, and closed at 25.55 on 2025-11-07 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period stood at 288,717.0 units, with notional turnover of 7,390,466.4 (SEIJPY). The session saw increased volatility and clear breakout signals.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed several key turning points over the 24-hour period. A bullish morning star pattern emerged just below the 24.50 support level, followed by a confirmed breakout above 24.70 and 25.00. The price then surged toward 25.53 amid strong volume. Resistance levels now appear at 25.53 (recent high) and 25.70, while support levels are at 25.35 and 25.00. A doji formed at 25.42, suggesting short-term indecision, but a strong bearish engulfing pattern followed after 04:00 ET.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed above key support levels, confirming the bullish shift. The 20-period SMA currently sits at 25.20, while the 50-period SMA rests at 25.10. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is rising and now supports the current price action at around 24.95, with the 200-period SMA lagging behind at 24.60.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive after 03:00 ET, aligning with the breakout above 25.00, and hit a peak at 0.43 before declining slightly. RSI entered overbought territory at 68 and peaked at 76, indicating a potential short-term pullback. While bullish momentum remains strong, a retest of 25.35 or 25.00 could trigger profit-taking or a reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with the price reaching as high as 25.53, well above the upper band. The recent contraction before the breakout suggested a period of consolidation that preceded a sharp move. With the bands now wide, the market appears more active, and price may remain within or outside this range depending on further momentum.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged significantly after 03:15 ET, especially as price moved above 25.00 and 25.35, with the most intense buying pressure evident around 03:30–04:00 ET. Turnover mirrored volume spikes, confirming the strength of the breakout. A divergence between volume and price could indicate a reversal, but currently, volume and price action are aligned.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart show that the recent rally from 24.03 to 25.53 reached key levels at 24.74 (38.2%), 25.18 (50%), and 25.49 (61.8%). The 61.8% level at 25.49 was briefly touched, but the price closed above it, suggesting bullish continuation. Daily retracements show similar alignment, with the 24.95–25.20 range appearing to be a key target for further consolidation or breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the emergence of a Morning Star pattern at 24.50, a backtesting hypothesis could be built around confirming such patterns on a 15-minute chart and entering long positions at the open of the next session. Exit rules would involve holding the position for up to three trading days, exiting at the close. Stop-loss could be placed just below the pattern’s low at 24.42, while a take-profit target might align with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 25.49. This approach would require testing on multiple assets and timeframes to assess consistency, but the strong volume and price alignment on SEIJPY suggest potential for similar strategies in volatile crypto pairs.