Market Overview for SEIJPY on 2025-11-08

• Price rallied to 28.60 before retreating to 27.86, showing mixed momentum.
• Volatility surged during the early Asian session, with volume spiking above 26k.
• Overbought RSI and bearish divergence suggest caution ahead of the 28.00 pivot.

The Sei/Yen pair (SEIJPY) opened at 26.27 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and peaked at 28.60 during the early Asian session. It eventually closed at 27.86 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached 586,446.0, with turnover amounting to 15,062,376.60. The pair exhibited a strong bullish move followed by a sharp pullback, suggesting mixed sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the 28.60 high, confirming a potential reversal. Key support levels emerged at 27.93 (61.8% Fib retracement from the 26.19–28.60 swing) and 27.70 (prior intraday lows). A doji at 28.04 during the European session indicated indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs remained in bullish alignment for most of the session before converging at 28.00. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support during the pullback. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period SMAs are in alignment, supporting a broader bullish outlook.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early Asian session, driving the rally to 28.60, but a bearish crossover followed in the afternoon as momentum reversed. The RSI maxed out at overbought territory (88) and failed to close above 70, signaling potential exhaustion. A bearish divergence between price and RSI is evident around the 28.50–28.60 peak.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the Asian session as the 20-period Bollinger Bands widened. Price spent most of the day outside the upper band, suggesting high volatility. By the end of the session, price retraced into the band's body, indicating a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged above 26k during the 02:45–03:00 ET session, coinciding with the 28.52–28.29 pullback. Turnover also spiked sharply during the Asian peak, confirming the strength of the move. Divergence between volume and price was observed during the afternoon pullback, where volume declined despite price falling.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 27.93 held as strong support during the afternoon sell-off. The 38.2% level at 28.32 acted as resistance in the evening, capping the rebound. On the daily chart, the 28.25–28.60 swing provides key levels for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent divergence in RSI and bearish engulfing pattern at the 28.60 high, a backtest strategy could target short positions triggered on a break below 27.93, with a stop above 28.10 and a target at 27.70. For longs, a buy on a retest of 27.93 with RSI above 50 and volume confirmation could be tested. The MACD bearish crossover observed after the 28.60 peak would serve as a signal filter.