Market Overview for SEIJPY on 2025-10-07

• SEIJPY declined by 23.3% in 24 hours amid strong bearish momentum and volume spikes post-breakout.
• Key resistance at 45.82 and support at 44.93 showed failed attempts, with a breakdown below critical level 45.30.
• Volatility expanded early morning, with Bollinger Bands widening and price falling to the lower band by midday.
• MACD and RSI confirmed bearish divergence, with overbought conditions reversed to oversold levels.
• Fibonacci retracements show 61.8% at 44.20 and 38.2% at 45.30 as immediate potential reversal zones.

The SEIJPY pair opened at 45.50 (12:00 ET–1), surged to 46.06 before falling to a low of 43.36 and closing at 43.43 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 534,603 with notional turnover of approximately 23,617,000 Yen over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish breakout from a key resistance level around 45.82, followed by a retest at 45.30 that failed, confirming a breakdown. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 00:00–00:15 ET and again at 08:15–08:30 ET, reinforcing the downward bias. A long-legged doji at 04:45 ET and another at 07:45 ET suggested indecision before the final leg down.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been trending lower, with price currently below both and showing no signs of a reversal. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MA, forming a bearish death cross confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below zero at 05:00 ET and has remained in negative territory, with bearish divergences forming after failed bounces. RSI dropped from overbought to oversold territory, reaching a low of 17.5 near 15:15 ET, indicating exhausted selling pressure—though no immediate reversal was triggered.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early hours of the morning, with price reaching the upper band at 46.06 before collapsing to the lower band by 15:00 ET. The contraction that followed suggested a potential pause, but the breakdown confirmed a shift in volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout at 04:45–05:00 ET and again at 08:15–08:30 ET, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover peaked at 9.9 million Yen during the 08:15–08:30 ET window, aligning with the sharp drop from 44.85 to 44.6. Price and turnover remained aligned during the final leg, suggesting broad consensus in bearish positioning.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 45.50 to 46.06 shows 61.8% at 45.30, which acted as a key support level that was broken. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement is now at 44.20, and the 61.8% is at 43.45—currently close to the 12:00 ET close.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position after a bearish engulfing pattern forms below a key support level, such as the 45.30–45.50 zone. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance, such as 45.64 or 45.82, with a target aligned to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 44.20. The volume confirmation during the breakdown and the low RSI readings provide additional signals for entry. This approach would aim to capture momentum-driven moves in a trending market while minimizing exposure to false breakouts through price-volume alignment.