Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY): Sharp Drop Amid High Volume and Oversold Momentum

• Price declined sharply after a modest morning rally, closing near a 24-hour low of 29.66.
• Volume spiked heavily in the late afternoon and evening, indicating strong bearish conviction.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, but price continued to fall, showing potential divergence.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility surged, with price closing near the lower band.
• A key support level appears near 29.40–29.50, based on Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of a recent rally.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period saw a distinct bearish trend, with a brief 15-minute bullish spike in the early afternoon before a sharp decline took hold. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed after 7:45 PM ET, followed by a long lower shadow and a weak close. A potential support zone emerged near 29.46–29.58, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier rally from 29.36–29.82. A 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart currently sits at 29.72, suggesting short-term bearish bias as price drifted below it. The 200-period daily moving average, however, remains above the 24-hour close, indicating a longer-term bullish structure may still hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is at 29.77 and the 50-period at 29.72, both trending downward. This indicates a bearish short-term bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 29.80, while the 100- and 200-period lines are slightly higher, suggesting the pair remains above its long-term bullish trend. However, the continued drop below key moving averages on the shorter timeframes signals caution for near-term bullish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line closed at -0.15, with the signal line at -0.11, showing bearish momentum. The histogram has been declining for several hours, reinforcing downward pressure. RSI ended the 24-hour period at 28, well into oversold territory. This could suggest a potential short-term bounce, but price failed to respond to prior overbought levels, raising questions about the strength of the oversold signal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp selloff, reflecting increased volatility. The 20-period band width is now at 0.48, up from 0.29 the previous day. Price closed at 29.66, near the lower band, which could act as a short-term support zone. A sustained break below 29.50 could lead to a test of the next level at 29.40, while a retest of the 20-period band center at 29.88 would suggest a potential rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with a massive spike after 7:30 PM ET (volume of 116,999) and continued selling pressure through the night. Total 24-hour volume came in at 599,649, with turnover calculated as approximately 17.69 million (based on average price of 29.50). The volume diverged from price in the early morning, as the price drifted lower with little activity, signaling weak conviction for further downward movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the key swing low of 29.36 to the high of 29.82 indicate the 38.2% retracement at 29.66 coincided with today's close, acting as a potential consolidation level. The 61.8% level at 29.58 is now a critical near-term support. If the pair fails to hold these levels and drops below 29.46, the next Fibonacci target at 29.36 becomes relevant.

Backtest Hypothesis

Before we can detect the “Falling Window” (bearish gap) occurrences and run the event back-test, it’s crucial to confirm the correct ticker and any specific gap definition. If “SEIJPY” is not the intended asset, clarification is needed (e.g., if you meant SEI.T or another ticker). Once confirmed, I will automatically scan the daily OHLC data from 2022-01-01 through today to identify every bearish gap and then back-test the post-gap performance. If no further preferences are given, the standard gap definition will be applied: today’s high < yesterday’s low, with at least a 0.5% gap.