Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY): October 31, 2025

• Price fell to a 24-hour low of 27.28 before recovering to close near 28.92, showing resilience.
• Strong volume surges occurred during bearish and bullish phases, suggesting active participation.
• A sharp decline from 28.96 to 27.28, followed by a partial rebound, indicates potential consolidation.
• A key support at ~27.6–27.7 was tested twice, while resistance appears at ~28.8–28.9.
• Bollinger Bands indicate increasing volatility, with price near the upper band at close.

The Sei/Yen pair (SEIJPY) opened at 28.42 on October 31, 2025, at 12:00 ET-1, with a 24-hour high of 30.22 and low of 27.28, closing at 30.04. Total volume for the day was 1,079,607.0 units, with a notional turnover of ~$29.76 million, based on average pricing.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a sharp selloff from 28.96 to 27.28, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. This was followed by a strong rebound, suggesting a potential reversal. A bullish harami pattern formed near the 28.0–28.2 level, indicating indecision and potential for a rally. Key support levels were identified at 27.6–27.7 and 28.0–28.2, while resistance appears to be around 28.8–28.9 and 29.5–30.0. A bearish divergence in volume was observed during the initial drop, but volume surged during the rebound, indicating strong buying interest.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed over multiple times, indicating a choppy and range-bound market. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is near 28.5, with the 200-period at ~27.8. Price is currently above both, suggesting short-term bullish bias. MACD lines showed a mix of bearish and bullish signals, with the histogram expanding during key moves. While RSI was not available due to data constraints, the overall momentum appears to be shifting from bearish to neutral, with signs of a potential rebound.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility was significantly higher in the latter half of the 24-hour window, with Bollinger Bands widening as the price moved from a low of 27.28 to a high of 30.22. At the 12:00 ET close, SEIJPY was near the upper band at 30.04, suggesting a potential overextension. This could indicate a short-term reversal or consolidation period. The widening bands confirm that the market is in a high-volatility phase, likely due to increased trading activity during the price recovery.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during both the bearish and bullish phases of the day, with the largest single-candle volume occurring at 29.05 with 49,841.0 units traded. This coincided with the price breaking through a key resistance level. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with the price move. A divergence between volume and price was observed earlier in the session, where the price dropped sharply but volume remained lower, indicating weak conviction. However, volume confirmed the later rebound, suggesting a stronger market reaction to the recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were particularly relevant during the selloff and recovery. The 61.8% retracement level of the initial drop (28.96 to 27.28) is around 28.2–28.3, which acted as a short-term support. During the rebound, the 50% and 38.2% levels (~28.6 and ~28.8) were briefly tested. These levels could act as key psychological support and resistance in the coming days if the market consolidates.

Backtest Hypothesis

The absence of RSI data limits the ability to perform a full overbought/oversold analysis, but the price action and volume suggest a potential overextension at the 30.04 level. If RSI data were available and confirmed an overbought condition, a backtest could explore exit strategies or short-term corrections. The hypothesis would focus on identifying RSI overbought readings (typically above 70) and assessing the frequency and magnitude of subsequent corrections. Given the recent price action and volume surge, a test of this hypothesis could be conducted using an alternate identifier or data source to confirm the RSI readings. This could provide insight into whether overbought conditions historically precede significant pullbacks in this asset class.