Market Overview for Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) - October 13, 2025

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of ¥36.02 before consolidating near ¥35.50 amid strong volume.
• Key resistance at ¥35.63 and ¥35.81 faced rejection, with momentum stalling on overbought RSI.
• Volatility spiked on 15-minute chart with a 1.7% range, confirming bullish exhaustion near ¥35.80.
• Turnover divergence at ¥34.53 suggests bearish pressure, with a 50-period MA acting as potential support.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion signals a potential breakout scenario ahead.

At 12:00 ET on October 13, 2025, Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at ¥34.82 after closing at ¥34.82 the previous day. The pair reached a high of ¥36.02 and a low of ¥33.89, closing at ¥34.75. Over the 24-hour period, total volume was 132,884 units, with a notional turnover of ¥4.38 million. The pair displayed strong bullish momentum followed by bearish consolidation, with key support and resistance levels forming.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a bullish thrust as SEIJPY pushed above ¥35.80 on October 13 around 09:00 ET, but failed to hold the level, indicating potential exhaustion. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at ¥35.81–¥35.63 around 09:45 ET, signaling a reversal of recent gains. Notably, the pair retested the ¥35.63 level multiple times, with the 50-period moving average (50MA) acting as a strong support at ¥35.34. Key resistance levels include ¥35.63 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the ¥33.89–¥36.02 swing) and ¥35.81, both of which saw failed bullish attempts.

Moving Averages & MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20MA crossed above the 50MA in a golden cross around 07:45 ET, reinforcing the bullish bias. However, the MACD histogram peaked at ¥0.15, then flattened and turned negative by 09:45 ET, confirming weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50MA sits at ¥34.98 and has been a key support level, with the 200MA at ¥34.50 acting as a critical psychological floor. The RSI oscillated between overbought (82 at 09:00 ET) and oversold (36 at 15:45 ET) levels, reflecting volatile price action and mixed sentiment.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility spiked significantly during the session, with a 1.7% range observed between ¥33.89 and ¥36.02. The upper Bollinger Band reached ¥36.14 during the peak bullish phase, while the lower band sat at ¥33.75. Price tested the upper band twice, with the first rejection at ¥36.02 and the second at ¥35.81. The narrowing of the bands prior to the 09:00 ET high suggested a period of consolidation before the breakout, which ultimately failed to hold, indicating a potential bearish reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the strength of the patterns observed in SEIJPY, a backtest using the Bullish-Engulfing strategy could be applied over the past year. By isolating instances of the pattern and holding positions for exactly three trading days, we can assess the profitability and reliability of such signals in a real-world setting. This would provide valuable insights into the strategy's viability across different market conditions and help refine entry/exit parameters for future use.